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Wk 7 · 2026

Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes — Sat, Oct 17

Sat, Oct 17 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL · ESPN

Weather at kickoff

77°F light drizzle
57% chance of precipitation · wind 9 mph
Forecast from Open-Meteo
Florida State Seminoles
ACC · 3-3
at
7:00pET
MIA -21 · total 55.5 DraftKings opened -16.5 · 4.5 toward MIA
Ratings differential MIA by 22.7
#4 Miami Hurricanes
ACC · 5-0

What is at stake

Miami-Florida State. Wide Right, Wide Left, and five national championships between them decided by this game — the rivalry that defined college football's 1990s. A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Miami is ranked #4 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Florida St: +4.5#48
Efficiency margin
Miami: +24.8#5
Florida St: 34.5
Offense (pts/100)
Miami: 44.3
Florida St: 21.0
Defense (pts/100)
Miami: 10.5
Florida St: 64.7
Pace (plays/g)
Miami: 67.6
Florida St: 6.33
Yards / play
Miami: 8.21
Florida St: 6.12
Yards / play allowed
Miami: 4.16
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Florida St: 31.0
Points / game
Miami: 49.6
Florida St: 25.3
Points allowed
Miami: 9.8
Florida St: 410
Yards / game
Miami: 555
Florida St: 410
Yards allowed
Miami: 250
Florida St: 245
Pass yds allowed
Miami: 207
Florida St: 166
Rush yds allowed
Miami: 43
Florida St: 1.33
Turnovers / game
Miami: 0.40
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Florida St form

L 20-44at LOUW 38-7vs UVAW 34-7vs CARKL 36-50at ALAL 24-27vs SMU
2026 season

Miami form

W 41-13at CLEMW 52-3vs CMUW 33-20at WAKEW 77-7vs FAMUW 45-6at STAN
2026 season

Florida St this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)

Miami this season

Straight up5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 3

OpponentFlorida StMiami
Clemson
ACC
vs Wk 9 · scheduled previewat W 41-13 preview
Boston College
ACC
at Wk 10 · scheduled previewvs Wk 13 · scheduled preview
Pitt
ACC
at Wk 11 · scheduled previewvs Wk 8 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Florida St leads 12–8 · Miami has won the last 2
20 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 1.8 points toward Florida St
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20252025-10-04Miami 28 — 22 Florida Stat FSUMiami
20242024-10-26Florida St 14 — 36 Miamiat MIAMiami
20232023-11-11Miami 20 — 27 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20222022-11-05Florida St 45 — 3 Miamiat MIAFlorida St
20212021-11-13Miami 28 — 31 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20202020-09-26Florida St 10 — 52 Miamiat MIAMiami
20192019-11-02Miami 27 — 10 Florida Stat FSUMiami
20182018-10-06Florida St 27 — 28 Miamiat MIAMiami
20172017-10-07Miami 24 — 20 Florida Stat FSUMiami
20162016-10-08Florida St 20 — 19 Miamiat MIAFlorida St
20152015-10-10Miami 24 — 29 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20142014-11-15Florida St 30 — 26 Miamiat MIAFlorida St
20132013-11-02Miami 14 — 41 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20122012-10-20Florida St 33 — 20 Miamiat MIAFlorida St
20112011-11-12Miami 19 — 23 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20102010-10-09Florida St 45 — 17 Miamiat MIAFlorida St
20092009-09-07Miami 38 — 34 Florida Stat FSUMiami
20082008-10-04Florida St 41 — 39 Miamiat MIAFlorida St
20072007-10-20Miami 37 — 29 Florida Stat FSUMiami
20062006-09-04Florida St 13 — 10 Miamiat MIAFlorida St

Florida St leaders 2026 regular season

PassingAshton Daniels QB #1491/153, 1320 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT
Kevin Sperry QB #92/3, 14 YDS
RushingOusmane Kromah RB #32100 CAR, 565 YDS, 5 TD
Ashton Daniels QB #1470 CAR, 323 YDS, 10 TD
Quintrevion Wisner RB #529 CAR, 141 YDS
ReceivingJayvan Boggs WR #1516 REC, 299 YDS, 1 TD
Duce Robinson WR #017 REC, 294 YDS, 2 TD
Micahi Danzy WR #819 REC, 293 YDS, 2 TD
Samuel Singleton Jr. RB #38 REC, 162 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesCJ Richard Jr. DB #1138
Chris Jones LB #1037
Omar Graham Jr. LB #931
SacksRylan Kennedy DL #155
Mikai Gbayor LB #282
Mandrell Desir DL #32
InterceptionsQuindarrius Jones DB #01
Nehemiah Chandler DB #121
Ashlynd Barker DB #71
full roster and per-player history

Miami leaders 2026 regular season

PassingDarian Mensah QB #10112/133, 1438 YDS, 15 TD
Luke Nickel QB #515/20, 204 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
RushingMark Fletcher Jr. RB #452 CAR, 307 YDS, 5 TD
Javian Mallory RB #2139 CAR, 289 YDS, 3 TD
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey RB #2511 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingMalachi Toney WR #139 REC, 604 YDS, 6 TD
Cooper Barkate WR #1819 REC, 241 YDS, 4 TD
Elija Lofton TE #912 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
Daylyn Upshaw WR #713 REC, 129 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesOmar Thornton DB #021
Marquise Lightfoot DL #820
Mohamed Toure LB #118
SacksMarquise Lightfoot DL #85
Damon Wilson II DL #103.5
Omar Thornton DB #02
InterceptionsEthan O'Connor DB #241
Brody Jennings DB #151
JJ Dunnigan DB #251
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.