Wk 1 · 2026
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles — Sat, Aug 29
Sat, Aug 29 ·
Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
· CW FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
7:00pET
FSU -31.5 · total 53.5 DraftKings opened -30.5 · 1 toward FSU
Ratings differential FSU by 22.4
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
New Mexico St form
L 3-22at FIUW 34-13vs WKUL 18-42vs UNML 19-29at HAWW 51-14vs MERC
2026 season
Florida St form
L 20-44at LOUW 38-7vs UVAW 34-7vs CARKL 36-50at ALAL 24-27vs SMU
2026 season
New Mexico St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Florida St this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 0
These teams share no opponents on the 2026 schedule.
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Florida St leads 1–0 · Florida St won the last one
1 meeting
in 2006–2026 · average margin
17.0 points toward Florida St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-08-29 | New Mexico St 17 — 34 Florida St | at FSU | Florida St |
New Mexico St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Trey Hedden QB #3 | 65/124, 906 YDS, 5 TD, 6 INT |
| Adam Damante QB #14 | 43/70, 477 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT | |
| Rushing | James Jones RB #2 | 92 CAR, 599 YDS, 3 TD |
| TJ Washington Jr. RB #0 | 39 CAR, 164 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jalen Brown RB #28 | 5 CAR, 68 YDS | |
| Receiving | TK King WR #1 | 20 REC, 286 YDS, 3 TD |
| Josiah Thomas TE #15 | 17 REC, 237 YDS | |
| AJ Williams WR #11 | 12 REC, 195 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Terrione Graves WR #9 | 4 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Nick Session S #5 | 50 |
| Tory Gethers LB #6 | 39 | |
| Sone Aupiu LB #14 | 28 | |
| Sacks | Gabe Peterson DE #16 | 4.5 |
| Sone Aupiu LB #14 | 2.5 | |
| Reeves Baller DE #99 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Nick Session S #5 | 2 |
| Sone Aupiu LB #14 | 1 | |
| Javon Gillespie CB #2 | 1 |
Florida St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Ashton Daniels QB #14 | 91/153, 1320 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT |
| Kevin Sperry QB #9 | 2/3, 14 YDS | |
| Rushing | Ousmane Kromah RB #32 | 100 CAR, 565 YDS, 5 TD |
| Ashton Daniels QB #14 | 70 CAR, 323 YDS, 10 TD | |
| Quintrevion Wisner RB #5 | 29 CAR, 141 YDS | |
| Receiving | Jayvan Boggs WR #15 | 16 REC, 299 YDS, 1 TD |
| Duce Robinson WR #0 | 17 REC, 294 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Micahi Danzy WR #8 | 19 REC, 293 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Samuel Singleton Jr. RB #3 | 8 REC, 162 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | CJ Richard Jr. DB #11 | 38 |
| Chris Jones LB #10 | 37 | |
| Omar Graham Jr. LB #9 | 31 | |
| Sacks | Rylan Kennedy DL #15 | 5 |
| Mikai Gbayor LB #28 | 2 | |
| Mandrell Desir DL #3 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Quindarrius Jones DB #0 | 1 |
| Nehemiah Chandler DB #12 | 1 | |
| Ashlynd Barker DB #7 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.