Wk 4 · 2026
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets — Sat, Sep 26
Sat, Sep 26 ·
Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
· CBSSN FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:00pET
TOL -2.5 · total 50.5 DraftKings opened +1.5 · 4 toward TOL
Ratings differential TOL by 9.0
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
San Diego St form
L 14-66at ORSTW 31-29vs TXSTL 16-41at TOLL 13-26vs JMUL 10-28at UCLA
2026 season
Toledo form
L 8-23vs BUFW 39-24at BALLW 41-16vs SDSUW 49-48vs TEMW 63-10vs CCSU
2026 season
San Diego St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Toledo this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 0
These teams share no opponents on the 2026 schedule.
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 1–1 · Toledo won the last one
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
11.0 points toward Toledo
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-26 | San Diego St 16 — 41 Toledo | at TOL | Toledo |
| 2022 | 2022-09-24 | Toledo 14 — 17 San Diego St | at SDSU | San Diego St |
San Diego St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jayden Denegal QB #4 | 71/122, 709 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT |
| Draiden Trudeau QB #13 | 4/6, 53 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Javion Kinnard RB #21 | 56 CAR, 312 YDS, 1 TD |
| Josiah Lucas RB #23 | 34 CAR, 159 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Lucky Sutton RB #7 | 45 CAR, 150 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Receiving | Nathan Acevedo WR #13 | 16 REC, 177 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jacob Bostick WR #17 | 6 REC, 90 YDS | |
| Javion Kinnard RB #21 | 6 REC, 81 YDS | |
| Bert Emanuel Jr. WR #5 | 6 REC, 80 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Sione Hala LB #0 | 53 |
| Jelani McLaughlin S #20 | 37 | |
| Josh Hunter S #29 | 36 | |
| Sacks | Djibril Rahman LB #45 | 3 |
| Alijah Lash LB #41 | 2 | |
| Sione Hala LB #0 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Mike Lindsay CB #27 | 2 |
| Kai Wallin LB #18 | 1 | |
| Isaiah Green S #14 | 1 |
Toledo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | John Alan Richter QB #6 | 98/153, 1362 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT |
| Walter Moses QB #11 | 1/1, 40 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | CJ Miller RB #22 | 54 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD |
| Connor Walendzak RB #8 | 57 CAR, 336 YDS, 6 TD | |
| Autavius Ison RB #4 | 39 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Adjatay Dabbs WR #3 | 25 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD |
| Bryson Hammer WR #12 | 16 REC, 298 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rico Bond WR #1 | 11 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Daryl Barnett Jr. WR #19 | 10 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Isaac Zay LB #44 | 41 |
| Armorion Smith S #7 | 38 | |
| Julian Fox LB #10 | 36 | |
| Sacks | Andrew Zock DE #0 | 3.5 |
| Lucas Lambert-Pipkin DT #52 | 2 | |
| Isaac Zay LB #44 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Isaac Zay LB #44 | 2 |
| Julian Fox LB #10 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.