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Wk 5 · 2026

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs — Sat, Oct 3

Sat, Oct 3 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS · ABC FINAL

Weather

No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
#7 Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC · 5-1
56
at
12:00pET
ALA -5.5 · total 62.5 DraftKings opened +3 · 2.5 toward ALA
Ratings differential ALA by 13.3
#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs
SEC · 4-1
23

What is at stake

A SEC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Alabama is ranked #6 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04). Mississippi St is ranked #17 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Alabama: +27.4#1
Efficiency margin
Mississippi St: +11.7#26
Alabama: 45.6
Offense (pts/100)
Mississippi St: 40.5
Alabama: 9.2
Defense (pts/100)
Mississippi St: 19.8
Alabama: 64.7
Pace (plays/g)
Mississippi St: 71.2
Alabama: 7.00
Yards / play
Mississippi St: 6.84
Alabama: 5.41
Yards / play allowed
Mississippi St: 5.49
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Alabama: 44.2
Points / game
Mississippi St: 39.0
Alabama: 20.7
Points allowed
Mississippi St: 28.0
Alabama: 452
Yards / game
Mississippi St: 487
Alabama: 336
Yards allowed
Mississippi St: 380
Alabama: 236
Pass yds allowed
Mississippi St: 260
Alabama: 100
Rush yds allowed
Mississippi St: 120
Alabama: 1.17
Turnovers / game
Mississippi St: 1.40
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Alabama form

L 17-20vs UGAW 56-23at MSSTW 49-18vs SCW 50-36vs FSUW 45-17at UK
2026 season

Mississippi St form

L 23-56vs ALAW 31-24vs MIZW 41-34at SCW 38-13at MINNW 62-13vs ULM
2026 season

Alabama this season

Straight up5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)

Mississippi St this season

Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 4

OpponentAlabamaMississippi St
South Carolina
SEC
vs W 49-18 previewat W 41-34 preview
LSU
SEC
at Wk 10 · scheduled previewat Wk 7 · scheduled preview
Vanderbilt
SEC
at Wk 11 · scheduled previewvs Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Auburn
SEC
vs Wk 13 · scheduled previewvs Wk 11 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Alabama leads 17–2 · Alabama has won the last 17
19 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 22.2 points toward Alabama
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20262026-10-03Alabama 56 — 23 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20232023-09-30Alabama 40 — 17 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20222022-10-22Mississippi St 6 — 30 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20212021-10-16Alabama 49 — 9 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20202020-10-31Mississippi St 0 — 41 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20192019-11-16Alabama 38 — 7 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20182018-11-10Mississippi St 0 — 24 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20172017-11-11Alabama 31 — 24 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20162016-11-12Mississippi St 3 — 51 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20152015-11-14Alabama 31 — 6 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20142014-11-15Mississippi St 20 — 25 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20132013-11-16Alabama 20 — 7 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20122012-10-27Mississippi St 7 — 38 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20112011-11-12Alabama 24 — 7 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20102010-11-13Mississippi St 10 — 30 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20092009-11-14Alabama 31 — 3 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20082008-11-15Mississippi St 7 — 32 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20072007-11-10Alabama 12 — 17 Mississippi Stat MSSTMississippi St
20062006-11-04Mississippi St 24 — 16 Alabamaat ALAMississippi St

Alabama leaders 2026 regular season

PassingKeelon Russell QB #1294/132, 1414 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT
Austin Mack QB #103/4, 23 YDS
RushingDaniel Hill RB #451 CAR, 247 YDS, 4 TD
Trae'shawn Brown RB #1742 CAR, 211 YDS, 5 TD
EJ Crowell RB #1326 CAR, 204 YDS, 3 TD
ReceivingRyan Coleman-Williams WR #120 REC, 376 YDS, 4 TD
Lotzeir Brooks WR #321 REC, 352 YDS, 1 TD
Rico Scott WR #716 REC, 196 YDS, 3 TD
Marshall Pritchett TE #97 REC, 148 YDS
Defense
TacklesLuke Metz LB #438
Caleb Woodson LB #733
Red Morgan DB #622
SacksDevan Thompkins DL #13
Terrance Green DL #992.5
Caleb Woodson LB #72
InterceptionsRed Morgan DB #62
Yhonzae Pierre LB #01
Caleb Woodson LB #71
full roster and per-player history

Mississippi St leaders 2026 regular season

PassingKamario Taylor QB #1102/154, 1450 YDS, 17 TD, 4 INT
Parker Puckett QB #158/14, 89 YDS
RushingFluff Bothwell RB #2474 CAR, 403 YDS, 3 TD
Kamario Taylor QB #143 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
Kolin Wilson RB #631 CAR, 131 YDS
ReceivingAnthony Evans III WR #340 REC, 574 YDS, 5 TD
Sanfrisco Magee WR #1316 REC, 259 YDS, 5 TD
Marquis Johnson WR #213 REC, 218 YDS, 1 TD
Zion Ragins WR #711 REC, 184 YDS, 4 TD
Defense
TacklesTyler Lockhart LB #1131
Jalen Smith LB #1028
Amaree Williams EDGE #426
SacksWill Whitson DL #432
Tyler Lockhart LB #112
Jaray Bledsoe DL #91.5
InterceptionsJalen Smith LB #101
Dre Riley S #211
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.