Wk 6 · 2026
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats — Sat, Oct 10
Sat, Oct 10 ·
Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
· BTN FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:30pET
NU -34.5 · total 53.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential NU by 36.9
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Ball State form
L 14-45at NUL 24-39vs TOLL 13-26at KENTL 15-51at LIBW 41-17vs STBK
2026 season
Northwestern form
W 45-14vs BALLW 34-13vs PSUL 23-29at IUW 41-7vs COLOW 34-18vs SDST
2026 season
Ball State this season
Straight up1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Northwestern this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 1
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Northwestern leads 2–0 · Northwestern has won the last 2
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
18.0 points toward Northwestern
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-10 | Ball State 14 — 45 Northwestern | at NU | Northwestern |
| 2015 | 2015-09-26 | Ball State 19 — 24 Northwestern | at NU | Northwestern |
Ball State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Keldric Luster QB #6 | 76/119, 662 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT |
| Tyler Mizzell QB #9 | 19/33, 209 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | TJ Horton RB #4 | 37 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD |
| Jalen Bonds RB #2 | 24 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Johnny Thompson Jr. RB #20 | 24 CAR, 74 YDS | |
| Receiving | Donovan Hamilton WR #1 | 20 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jamarion McDougle WR #10 | 12 REC, 135 YDS | |
| Jabari Smith WR #5 | 12 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Isaiah Thacker WR #11 | 13 REC, 112 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Sterling Smith DB #1 | 35 |
| Cincear Lewis LB #6 | 26 | |
| Quentavius Scandrett DB #33 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Layton Starks LB #11 | 1.5 |
| Jared Badie LB #31 | 1 | |
| Ka'Shawn Thomas DT #94 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kamron Chamble DB #13 | 2 |
| Cedric Franklin II DB #18 | 1 |
Northwestern leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Aidan Chiles QB #0 | 63/89, 900 YDS, 6 TD |
| Rushing | Caleb Komolafe RB #5 | 52 CAR, 290 YDS, 2 TD |
| Joseph Himon II RB #6 | 20 CAR, 277 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Gavin Sawchuk RB #27 | 33 CAR, 170 YDS | |
| Receiving | Griffin Wilde WR #17 | 16 REC, 281 YDS, 2 TD |
| Luke Dehnicke TE #84 | 11 REC, 208 YDS | |
| Alex Honig TE #86 | 7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Drew Wagner WR #19 | 12 REC, 97 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Robert Fitzgerald DB #6 | 42 |
| Kobie McKinzie LB #2 | 32 | |
| Braydon Brus LB #33 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Braydon Brus LB #33 | 3 |
| Kobie McKinzie LB #2 | 1 | |
| Jamaal Johnson DL #24 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Ore Adeyi DB #7 | 1 |
| Robert Fitzgerald DB #6 | 1 | |
| Braydon Brus LB #33 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.