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Wk 6 · 2026

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals — Fri, Oct 9

Fri, Oct 9 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY · ESPN FINAL

Weather

No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
Florida State Seminoles
ACC · 3-3
20
at
7:00pET
LOU -4 · total 60.5 DraftKings opened -7.5 · 3.5 toward FSU
Ratings differential LOU by 6.5
Louisville Cardinals
ACC · 3-3
44

What is at stake

A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Florida St: +4.5#48
Efficiency margin
Louisville: +8.6#37
Florida St: 34.5
Offense (pts/100)
Louisville: 38.6
Florida St: 21.0
Defense (pts/100)
Louisville: 21.1
Florida St: 64.7
Pace (plays/g)
Louisville: 63.5
Florida St: 6.33
Yards / play
Louisville: 7.79
Florida St: 6.12
Yards / play allowed
Louisville: 5.60
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Florida St: 31.0
Points / game
Louisville: 39.5
Florida St: 25.3
Points allowed
Louisville: 27.7
Florida St: 410
Yards / game
Louisville: 494
Florida St: 410
Yards allowed
Louisville: 413
Florida St: 245
Pass yds allowed
Louisville: 257
Florida St: 166
Rush yds allowed
Louisville: 156
Florida St: 1.33
Turnovers / game
Louisville: 0.67
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Florida St form

L 20-44at LOUW 38-7vs UVAW 34-7vs CARKL 36-50at ALAL 24-27vs SMU
2026 season

Louisville form

W 44-20vs FSUL 28-31at NCSUL 27-30vs WAKEW 41-31vs SMUW 59-13vs VILL
2026 season

Florida St this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)

Louisville this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 3

OpponentFlorida StLouisville
SMU
ACC
vs L 24-27 previewvs W 41-31 preview
Pitt
ACC
at Wk 11 · scheduled previewvs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
NC State
ACC
vs Wk 12 · scheduled previewat L 28-31 preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Florida St leads 6–5 · Louisville won the last one
11 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 4.5 points toward Louisville
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20262026-10-09Florida St 20 — 44 Louisvilleat LOULouisville
20232023-12-02Louisville 6 — 16 Florida StneutralFlorida St
20222022-09-16Florida St 35 — 31 Louisvilleat LOUFlorida St
20212021-09-25Louisville 31 — 23 Florida Stat FSULouisville
20202020-10-24Florida St 16 — 48 Louisvilleat LOULouisville
20192019-09-21Louisville 24 — 35 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20182018-09-29Florida St 28 — 24 Louisvilleat LOUFlorida St
20172017-10-21Louisville 31 — 28 Florida Stat FSULouisville
20162016-09-17Florida St 20 — 63 Louisvilleat LOULouisville
20152015-10-17Louisville 21 — 41 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20142014-10-30Florida St 42 — 31 Louisvilleat LOUFlorida St

Florida St leaders 2026 regular season

PassingAshton Daniels QB #1491/153, 1320 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT
Kevin Sperry QB #92/3, 14 YDS
RushingOusmane Kromah RB #32100 CAR, 565 YDS, 5 TD
Ashton Daniels QB #1470 CAR, 323 YDS, 10 TD
Quintrevion Wisner RB #529 CAR, 141 YDS
ReceivingJayvan Boggs WR #1516 REC, 299 YDS, 1 TD
Duce Robinson WR #017 REC, 294 YDS, 2 TD
Micahi Danzy WR #819 REC, 293 YDS, 2 TD
Samuel Singleton Jr. RB #38 REC, 162 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesCJ Richard Jr. DB #1138
Chris Jones LB #1037
Omar Graham Jr. LB #931
SacksRylan Kennedy DL #155
Mikai Gbayor LB #282
Mandrell Desir DL #32
InterceptionsQuindarrius Jones DB #01
Nehemiah Chandler DB #121
Ashlynd Barker DB #71
full roster and per-player history

Louisville leaders 2026 regular season

PassingLincoln Kienholz QB #3107/154, 1534 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT
Briggs Cherry QB #102/2, 24 YDS
RushingIsaac Brown RB #174 CAR, 557 YDS, 4 TD
Keyjuan Brown RB #538 CAR, 367 YDS, 3 TD
Lincoln Kienholz QB #361 CAR, 198 YDS, 8 TD
ReceivingTre Richardson WR #029 REC, 445 YDS, 2 TD
Lawayne McCoy WR #720 REC, 420 YDS, 4 TD
TreyShun Hurry WR #224 REC, 271 YDS
Jaleel Skinner TE #1815 REC, 259 YDS, 3 TD
Defense
TacklesT.J. Capers LB #1148
Stanquan Clark LB #643
Kaleb Beasley DB #1043
SacksClev Lubin DL #504
Tyler Thompson DL #32.5
Benjamin Perry LB #232
InterceptionsKaleb Beasley DB #104
Stanquan Clark LB #61
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.