Wk 5 · 2026
Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
· ACC Network FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
3:30pET
LOU -5.5 · total 56.5 DraftKings opened +7.5 · 2 toward NCSU
Ratings differential LOU by 4.7
What is at stake
A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Louisville form
W 44-20vs FSUL 28-31at NCSUL 27-30vs WAKEW 41-31vs SMUW 59-13vs VILL
2026 season
NC State form
L 14-38vs WAKEW 31-28vs LOUW 41-31vs APPL 31-35at VANW 73-0vs RICH
2026 season
Louisville this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
NC State this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | Louisville | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest ACC | vs L 27-30 preview | vs L 14-38 preview |
| Florida St ACC | vs W 44-20 preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Syracuse ACC | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Stanford ACC | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| North Carolina ACC | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Louisville leads 7–5 · NC State won the last one
12 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
2.5 points toward Louisville
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | Louisville 28 — 31 NC State | at NCSU | NC State |
| 2023 | 2023-09-29 | Louisville 13 — 10 NC State | at NCSU | Louisville |
| 2022 | 2022-11-19 | NC State 10 — 25 Louisville | at LOU | Louisville |
| 2021 | 2021-10-30 | Louisville 13 — 28 NC State | at NCSU | NC State |
| 2019 | 2019-11-16 | Louisville 34 — 20 NC State | at NCSU | Louisville |
| 2018 | 2018-11-17 | NC State 52 — 10 Louisville | at LOU | NC State |
| 2017 | 2017-10-05 | Louisville 25 — 39 NC State | at NCSU | NC State |
| 2016 | 2016-10-22 | NC State 13 — 54 Louisville | at LOU | Louisville |
| 2015 | 2015-10-03 | Louisville 20 — 13 NC State | at NCSU | Louisville |
| 2014 | 2014-10-18 | NC State 18 — 30 Louisville | at LOU | Louisville |
| 2011 | 2011-12-27 | Louisville 24 — 31 NC State | neutral | NC State bowl/CFP |
| 2007 | 2007-09-29 | Louisville 29 — 10 NC State | at NCSU | Louisville |
Louisville leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Lincoln Kienholz QB #3 | 107/154, 1534 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT |
| Briggs Cherry QB #10 | 2/2, 24 YDS | |
| Rushing | Isaac Brown RB #1 | 74 CAR, 557 YDS, 4 TD |
| Keyjuan Brown RB #5 | 38 CAR, 367 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Lincoln Kienholz QB #3 | 61 CAR, 198 YDS, 8 TD | |
| Receiving | Tre Richardson WR #0 | 29 REC, 445 YDS, 2 TD |
| Lawayne McCoy WR #7 | 20 REC, 420 YDS, 4 TD | |
| TreyShun Hurry WR #2 | 24 REC, 271 YDS | |
| Jaleel Skinner TE #18 | 15 REC, 259 YDS, 3 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | T.J. Capers LB #11 | 48 |
| Stanquan Clark LB #6 | 43 | |
| Kaleb Beasley DB #10 | 43 | |
| Sacks | Clev Lubin DL #50 | 4 |
| Tyler Thompson DL #3 | 2.5 | |
| Benjamin Perry LB #23 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Kaleb Beasley DB #10 | 4 |
| Stanquan Clark LB #6 | 1 |
NC State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | CJ Bailey QB #11 | 98/150, 1266 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT |
| Will Wilson QB #10 | 8/11, 33 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Jayden Scott RB #1 | 62 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD |
| Davion Gause RB #7 | 46 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Will Wilson QB #10 | 35 CAR, 166 YDS, 6 TD | |
| Receiving | Keenan Jackson WR #8 | 22 REC, 339 YDS, 5 TD |
| Preston Douglas TE #19 | 19 REC, 241 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Joshisa Trader WR #2 | 16 REC, 221 YDS | |
| Davion Gause RB #7 | 10 REC, 117 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Popo Aguirre LB #0 | 42 |
| Brian Nelson II CB #7 | 24 | |
| Ronnie Royal III S #2 | 18 | |
| Sacks | Elijah Satchell LB #58 | 2 |
| Harvey Dyson III LB #5 | 1.5 | |
| Chase Bond DE #92 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Jackson Vick CB #22 | 1 |
| Brody Barnhardt S #29 | 1 | |
| Jaren Sensabaugh CB #14 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.