Wk 6 · 2026
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans — Sat, Oct 10
Sat, Oct 10 ·
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
· FS1 FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
3:30pET
ILL -2.5 · total 48.5 DraftKings opened +3 · 0.5 toward MSU
Ratings differential ILL by 0.5
What is at stake
A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Illinois form
W 38-37at MSUL 17-24vs PURL 19-42at OSUW 48-10vs SIUL 27-31vs DUKE
2026 season
Michigan St form
L 37-38vs ILLL 3-31at WISL 13-31vs NEBL 10-27at NDW 35-7vs EMU
2026 season
Illinois this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Michigan St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-2-1 · 60% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Illinois | Michigan St |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon Big Ten | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Nebraska Big Ten | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs L 13-31 preview |
| UCLA Big Ten | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Northwestern Big Ten | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Illinois leads 5–4 · Illinois has won the last 2
9 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
4.9 points toward Michigan St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-10 | Illinois 38 — 37 Michigan St | at MSU | Illinois |
| 2024 | 2024-11-16 | Michigan St 16 — 38 Illinois | at ILL | Illinois |
| 2022 | 2022-11-05 | Michigan St 23 — 15 Illinois | at ILL | Michigan St |
| 2019 | 2019-11-09 | Illinois 37 — 34 Michigan St | at MSU | Illinois |
| 2016 | 2016-11-05 | Michigan St 27 — 31 Illinois | at ILL | Illinois |
| 2013 | 2013-10-26 | Michigan St 42 — 3 Illinois | at ILL | Michigan St |
| 2010 | 2010-10-16 | Illinois 6 — 26 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2009 | 2009-10-10 | Michigan St 24 — 14 Illinois | at ILL | Michigan St |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | Illinois 23 — 20 Michigan St | at MSU | Illinois |
Illinois leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Katin Houser QB #4 | 102/155, 1246 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | Aidan Laughery RB #21 | 45 CAR, 321 YDS, 1 TD |
| Ca'Lil Valentine RB #5 | 50 CAR, 225 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Katin Houser QB #4 | 25 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Collin Dixon WR #17 | 40 REC, 546 YDS, 8 TD |
| Hudson Clement WR #13 | 21 REC, 299 YDS | |
| Ty Robinson WR #10 | 11 REC, 159 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Brayden Trimble WR #11 | 15 REC, 116 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Matthew Bailey DB #7 | 37 |
| Ismael Kante LB #26 | 29 | |
| Juice Clarke DB #6 | 24 | |
| Sacks | Will Holmes DL #24 | 1 |
| Ean Rhea LB #40 | 1 | |
| Joe Barna DL #43 | 0.5 | |
| Interceptions | Matthew Bailey DB #7 | 1 |
| Ismael Kante LB #26 | 1 |
Michigan St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT |
| Cam Fancher QB #2 | 8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Cam Edwards RB #0 | 64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD |
| Jaziun Patterson RB #4 | 44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Marvis Parrish RB #21 | 29 CAR, 89 YDS | |
| Receiving | Rodney Bullard Jr. WR #3 | 15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jayden Savoury TE #31 | 17 REC, 179 YDS | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 18 REC, 150 YDS | |
| Fredrick Moore WR #6 | 14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Devin Vaught S #2 | 33 |
| Dion Crawford LB #18 | 23 | |
| Brady Pretzlaff LB #45 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Eli Coenen DL #96 | 3 |
| Isaac Smith EDGE #13 | 1 | |
| Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.