Wk 7 · 2026
Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
· Peacock
Weather at kickoff
36°F partly cloudy
8% chance of precipitation · wind 18 mph
Forecast from Open-Meteo
Big Ten · 4-1
at
12:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential NU by 9.3
Big Ten · 2-4
What is at stake
A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Northwestern form
W 45-14vs BALLW 34-13vs PSUL 23-29at IUW 41-7vs COLOW 34-18vs SDST
2026 season
Michigan St form
L 37-38vs ILLL 3-31at WISL 13-31vs NEBL 10-27at NDW 35-7vs EMU
2026 season
Northwestern this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Michigan St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-2-1 · 60% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | Northwestern | Michigan St |
|---|---|---|
| Rutgers Big Ten | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Oregon Big Ten | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Illinois Big Ten | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs L 37-38 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Michigan St leads 9–5 · Michigan St has won the last 3
14 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
5.8 points toward Michigan St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2021-09-03 | Michigan St 38 — 21 Northwestern | at NU | Michigan St |
| 2020 | 2020-11-28 | Northwestern 20 — 29 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2019 | 2019-09-21 | Michigan St 31 — 10 Northwestern | at NU | Michigan St |
| 2018 | 2018-10-06 | Northwestern 29 — 19 Michigan St | at MSU | Northwestern |
| 2017 | 2017-10-28 | Michigan St 31 — 39 Northwestern | at NU | Northwestern |
| 2016 | 2016-10-15 | Northwestern 54 — 40 Michigan St | at MSU | Northwestern |
| 2013 | 2013-11-23 | Michigan St 30 — 6 Northwestern | at NU | Michigan St |
| 2012 | 2012-11-17 | Northwestern 23 — 20 Michigan St | at MSU | Northwestern |
| 2011 | 2011-11-26 | Michigan St 31 — 17 Northwestern | at NU | Michigan St |
| 2010 | 2010-10-23 | Michigan St 35 — 27 Northwestern | at NU | Michigan St |
| 2009 | 2009-10-17 | Northwestern 14 — 24 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2008 | 2008-10-11 | Michigan St 37 — 20 Northwestern | at NU | Michigan St |
| 2007 | 2007-10-06 | Northwestern 48 — 41 Michigan St | at MSU | Northwestern |
| 2006 | 2006-10-21 | Michigan St 41 — 38 Northwestern | at NU | Michigan St |
Northwestern leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Aidan Chiles QB #0 | 63/89, 900 YDS, 6 TD |
| Rushing | Caleb Komolafe RB #5 | 52 CAR, 290 YDS, 2 TD |
| Joseph Himon II RB #6 | 20 CAR, 277 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Gavin Sawchuk RB #27 | 33 CAR, 170 YDS | |
| Receiving | Griffin Wilde WR #17 | 16 REC, 281 YDS, 2 TD |
| Luke Dehnicke TE #84 | 11 REC, 208 YDS | |
| Alex Honig TE #86 | 7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Drew Wagner WR #19 | 12 REC, 97 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Robert Fitzgerald DB #6 | 42 |
| Kobie McKinzie LB #2 | 32 | |
| Braydon Brus LB #33 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Braydon Brus LB #33 | 3 |
| Kobie McKinzie LB #2 | 1 | |
| Jamaal Johnson DL #24 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Ore Adeyi DB #7 | 1 |
| Robert Fitzgerald DB #6 | 1 | |
| Braydon Brus LB #33 | 1 |
Michigan St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT |
| Cam Fancher QB #2 | 8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Cam Edwards RB #0 | 64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD |
| Jaziun Patterson RB #4 | 44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Marvis Parrish RB #21 | 29 CAR, 89 YDS | |
| Receiving | Rodney Bullard Jr. WR #3 | 15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jayden Savoury TE #31 | 17 REC, 179 YDS | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 18 REC, 150 YDS | |
| Fredrick Moore WR #6 | 14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Devin Vaught S #2 | 33 |
| Dion Crawford LB #18 | 23 | |
| Brady Pretzlaff LB #45 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Eli Coenen DL #96 | 3 |
| Isaac Smith EDGE #13 | 1 | |
| Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.