Wk 5 · 2026
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
· BTN FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:30pET
WIS -8.5 · total 43.5 DraftKings opened -10 · 1.5 toward MSU
Ratings differential WIS by 10.3
What is at stake
A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Michigan St form
L 37-38vs ILLL 3-31at WISL 13-31vs NEBL 10-27at NDW 35-7vs EMU
2026 season
Wisconsin form
W 31-3vs MSUW 24-20at PSUW 54-10vs EMUW 36-9vs WIUL 13-41at ND
2026 season
Michigan St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-2-1 · 60% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Wisconsin this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Michigan St | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| E Michigan MAC | vs W 35-7 preview | vs W 54-10 preview |
| Notre Dame FBS Indep. | at L 10-27 preview | N L 13-41 preview |
| UCLA Big Ten | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Rutgers Big Ten | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Wisconsin leads 6–5 · Wisconsin won the last one
11 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
7.1 points toward Wisconsin
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | Michigan St 3 — 31 Wisconsin | at WIS | Wisconsin |
| 2022 | 2022-10-15 | Wisconsin 28 — 34 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2019 | 2019-10-12 | Michigan St 0 — 38 Wisconsin | at WIS | Wisconsin |
| 2016 | 2016-09-24 | Wisconsin 30 — 6 Michigan St | at MSU | Wisconsin |
| 2012 | 2012-10-27 | Michigan St 16 — 13 Wisconsin | at WIS | Michigan St |
| 2011 | 2011-12-03 | Wisconsin 42 — 39 Michigan St | neutral | Wisconsin |
| 2011 | 2011-10-22 | Wisconsin 31 — 37 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2010 | 2010-10-02 | Wisconsin 24 — 34 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2009 | 2009-09-26 | Michigan St 30 — 38 Wisconsin | at WIS | Wisconsin |
| 2008 | 2008-11-01 | Wisconsin 24 — 25 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2007 | 2007-09-29 | Michigan St 34 — 37 Wisconsin | at WIS | Wisconsin |
Michigan St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT |
| Cam Fancher QB #2 | 8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Cam Edwards RB #0 | 64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD |
| Jaziun Patterson RB #4 | 44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Marvis Parrish RB #21 | 29 CAR, 89 YDS | |
| Receiving | Rodney Bullard Jr. WR #3 | 15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jayden Savoury TE #31 | 17 REC, 179 YDS | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 18 REC, 150 YDS | |
| Fredrick Moore WR #6 | 14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Devin Vaught S #2 | 33 |
| Dion Crawford LB #18 | 23 | |
| Brady Pretzlaff LB #45 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Eli Coenen DL #96 | 3 |
| Isaac Smith EDGE #13 | 1 | |
| Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 |
Wisconsin leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Colton Joseph QB #1 | 81/143, 1132 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT |
| Rushing | Colton Joseph QB #1 | 51 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD |
| Darrion Dupree RB #6 | 43 CAR, 195 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Abu Sama III RB #3 | 28 CAR, 190 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Tyrell Henry WR #0 | 26 REC, 339 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jacob Harris TE #89 | 13 REC, 238 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Chris Brooks Jr. WR #2 | 11 REC, 194 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Malachi Coleman WR #4 | 5 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Cooper Catalano LB #44 | 45 |
| Mason Posa LB #8 | 40 | |
| Matthew Jung S #29 | 32 | |
| Sacks | Sebastian Cheeks LB #15 | 2.5 |
| Hammond Russell IV DL #91 | 1.5 | |
| Charles Perkins DL #30 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Charles Perkins DL #30 | 1 |
| Mason Posa LB #8 | 1 | |
| Matthew Jung S #29 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.