Wk 4 · 2026
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs — Sat, Sep 26
Sat, Sep 26 ·
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
· SEC Network FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
7:45pET
MSST -3.5 · total 58.5 DraftKings opened -1.5 · 2 toward MSST
Ratings differential MIZ by 1.1
What is at stake
A SEC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Missouri is ranked #14 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04). Mississippi St is ranked #17 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Missouri form
W 27-6vs TA&MW 45-17vs FLAL 24-31at MSSTW 27-17vs TROYW 38-21at KU
2026 season
Mississippi St form
L 23-56vs ALAW 31-24vs MIZW 41-34at SCW 38-13at MINNW 62-13vs ULM
2026 season
Missouri this season
Straight up5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Mississippi St this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | Missouri | Mississippi St |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss SEC | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Texas SEC | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Oklahoma SEC | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Mississippi St leads 3–2 · Mississippi St won the last one
5 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
0.6 points toward Mississippi St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-26 | Missouri 24 — 31 Mississippi St | at MSST | Mississippi St |
| 2025 | 2025-11-15 | Mississippi St 27 — 49 Missouri | at MIZ | Missouri |
| 2024 | 2024-11-23 | Missouri 39 — 20 Mississippi St | at MSST | Missouri |
| 2020 | 2020-12-19 | Missouri 32 — 51 Mississippi St | at MSST | Mississippi St |
| 2015 | 2015-11-05 | Mississippi St 31 — 13 Missouri | at MIZ | Mississippi St |
Missouri leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Austin Simmons QB #13 | 93/137, 1287 YDS, 13 TD |
| Matt Zollers QB #5 | 8/13, 87 YDS | |
| Rushing | Jamal Roberts RB #20 | 113 CAR, 606 YDS, 6 TD |
| Xai'Shaun Edwards RB #24 | 33 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Preston Hatfield RB #28 | 4 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Cayden Lee WR #19 | 35 REC, 522 YDS, 4 TD |
| Donovan Olugbode WR #1 | 26 REC, 407 YDS, 6 TD | |
| Shaun Terry II WR #4 | 9 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Naeshaun Montgomery WR #0 | 7 REC, 82 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Nicholas Rodriguez LB #5 | 50 |
| Santana Banner S #15 | 44 | |
| Robert Woodyard Jr. LB #0 | 36 | |
| Sacks | Daeden Hopkins EDGE #10 | 6 |
| Donta Simpson DT #8 | 3 | |
| Jason Dowell DT #92 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Robert Woodyard Jr. LB #0 | 1 |
| Jahlil Florence CB #21 | 1 | |
| Trajen Greco S #4 | 1 |
Mississippi St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Kamario Taylor QB #1 | 102/154, 1450 YDS, 17 TD, 4 INT |
| Parker Puckett QB #15 | 8/14, 89 YDS | |
| Rushing | Fluff Bothwell RB #24 | 74 CAR, 403 YDS, 3 TD |
| Kamario Taylor QB #1 | 43 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kolin Wilson RB #6 | 31 CAR, 131 YDS | |
| Receiving | Anthony Evans III WR #3 | 40 REC, 574 YDS, 5 TD |
| Sanfrisco Magee WR #13 | 16 REC, 259 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Marquis Johnson WR #2 | 13 REC, 218 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Zion Ragins WR #7 | 11 REC, 184 YDS, 4 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Tyler Lockhart LB #11 | 31 |
| Jalen Smith LB #10 | 28 | |
| Amaree Williams EDGE #4 | 26 | |
| Sacks | Will Whitson DL #43 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockhart LB #11 | 2 | |
| Jaray Bledsoe DL #9 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Jalen Smith LB #10 | 1 |
| Dre Riley S #21 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.