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Wk 13 · 2026

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders — Thu, Nov 26

Thu, Nov 26 · Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, TX · ESPN

Weather

No forecast yet. This one is 46 days away. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
TCU Horned Frogs
Big 12 · 2-3
at
8:00pET
TTU -16.5 · total 55.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential TTU by 11.2
#11 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big 12 · 5-0

What is at stake

Saddle Trophy. Thanksgiving night in Lubbock, with a hand-tooled saddle on the line — the only FBS game played on Thanksgiving Day in 2026. They play for the West Texas Saddle. A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Texas Tech is ranked #11 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

TCU: +5.7#44
Efficiency margin
Texas Tech: +14.5#15
TCU: 31.6
Offense (pts/100)
Texas Tech: 38.1
TCU: 16.9
Defense (pts/100)
Texas Tech: 14.5
TCU: 66.0
Pace (plays/g)
Texas Tech: 67.4
TCU: 6.14
Yards / play
Texas Tech: 6.00
TCU: 4.57
Yards / play allowed
Texas Tech: 5.02
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

TCU: 25.4
Points / game
Texas Tech: 34.8
TCU: 13.4
Points allowed
Texas Tech: 16.2
TCU: 405
Yards / game
Texas Tech: 404
TCU: 255
Yards allowed
Texas Tech: 354
TCU: 155
Pass yds allowed
Texas Tech: 262
TCU: 100
Rush yds allowed
Texas Tech: 91
TCU: 1.40
Turnovers / game
Texas Tech: 1.60
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

TCU form

L 10-17vs BYUL 13-21at UCFW 31-7vs ARSTW 63-7vs GRAML 10-15vs UNC
2026 season

Texas Tech form

W 29-7at COLOW 49-14vs SHSUW 28-26vs HOUW 35-24at ORSTW 33-10vs ACU
2026 season

TCU this season

Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)

Texas Tech this season

Straight up5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 3

OpponentTCUTexas Tech
Baylor
Big 12
at Wk 7 · scheduled previewat Wk 12 · scheduled preview
West Virginia
Big 12
vs Wk 8 · scheduled previewvs Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Arizona
Big 12
at Wk 10 · scheduled previewvs Wk 9 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, TCU leads 9–5 · TCU won the last one
14 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 8.2 points toward TCU
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20242024-10-26Texas Tech 34 — 35 TCUat TCUTCU
20232023-11-02TCU 28 — 35 Texas Techat TTUTexas Tech
20222022-11-05Texas Tech 24 — 34 TCUat TCUTCU
20212021-10-09TCU 52 — 31 Texas Techat TTUTCU
20202020-11-07Texas Tech 18 — 34 TCUat TCUTCU
20192019-11-16TCU 33 — 31 Texas Techat TTUTCU
20182018-10-11Texas Tech 17 — 14 TCUat TCUTexas Tech
20172017-11-18TCU 27 — 3 Texas Techat TTUTCU
20162016-10-29Texas Tech 27 — 24 TCUat TCUTexas Tech
20152015-09-26TCU 55 — 52 Texas Techat TTUTCU
20142014-10-25Texas Tech 27 — 82 TCUat TCUTCU
20132013-09-12TCU 10 — 20 Texas Techat TTUTexas Tech
20122012-10-20Texas Tech 56 — 53 TCUat TCUTexas Tech
20062006-09-16Texas Tech 3 — 12 TCUat TCUTCU

TCU leaders 2026 regular season

PassingJaden Craig QB #1108/157, 1400 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT
Adam Schobel QB #110/1, 0 YDS
RushingJeremy Payne RB #2687 CAR, 432 YDS, 2 TD
Jon Denman RB #223 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD
Joe Pitchford RB #2411 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingEd Small WR #1828 REC, 403 YDS, 1 TD
Kari Ashley TE #8125 REC, 374 YDS, 4 TD
Jeremy Scott WR #613 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD
Jacobe Hayes WR #809 REC, 133 YDS
Defense
TacklesHudson Hooper LB #3727
Jamel Johnson S #226
Max Carroll LB #321
SacksAnsel Din-Mbuh DT #922
John Schobel EDGE #142
Markis Deal DT #951.5
InterceptionsVernon Glover Jr. CB #11
Teon Parks CB #211
full roster and per-player history

Texas Tech leaders 2026 regular season

PassingWill Hammond QB #1597/142, 1102 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT
Tommy Castellanos QB #12/4, 35 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushingJ'Koby Williams RB #2063 CAR, 373 YDS, 3 TD
Cameron Dickey RB #857 CAR, 242 YDS, 4 TD
Quinten Joyner RB #035 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
ReceivingKenny Johnson WR #417 REC, 298 YDS, 1 TD
Coy Eakin WR #316 REC, 194 YDS, 2 TD
J'Koby Williams RB #2019 REC, 137 YDS
Terrance Carter Jr. TE #713 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesAustin Romaine LB #1535
Ben Roberts LB #1332
John Curry LB #628
SacksA.J. Holmes Jr. DL #102.5
Jamond Mathis LB #82.5
LaDamion Guyton LB #322
InterceptionsJohn Curry LB #62
Brice Pollock CB #142
Austin Romaine LB #152
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.