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Wk 12 · 2026

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears — Sat, Nov 21

Sat, Nov 21 · McLane Stadium, Waco, TX

Weather

No forecast yet. This one is 40 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
#11 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big 12 · 5-0
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential TTU by 3.1
Baylor Bears
Big 12 · 4-1

What is at stake

A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Texas Tech is ranked #11 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Texas Tech: +14.5#15
Efficiency margin
Baylor: +9.0#34
Texas Tech: 38.1
Offense (pts/100)
Baylor: 37.0
Texas Tech: 14.5
Defense (pts/100)
Baylor: 19.0
Texas Tech: 67.4
Pace (plays/g)
Baylor: 80.8
Texas Tech: 6.00
Yards / play
Baylor: 5.71
Texas Tech: 5.02
Yards / play allowed
Baylor: 4.52
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Texas Tech: 34.8
Points / game
Baylor: 34.8
Texas Tech: 16.2
Points allowed
Baylor: 14.2
Texas Tech: 404
Yards / game
Baylor: 461
Texas Tech: 354
Yards allowed
Baylor: 327
Texas Tech: 262
Pass yds allowed
Baylor: 229
Texas Tech: 91
Rush yds allowed
Baylor: 97
Texas Tech: 1.60
Turnovers / game
Baylor: 1.60
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Texas Tech form

W 29-7at COLOW 49-14vs SHSUW 28-26vs HOUW 35-24at ORSTW 33-10vs ACU
2026 season

Baylor form

W 55-19at ASUW 23-13vs COLOW 36-19vs LTW 44-3vs PVL 16-17at AUB
2026 season

Texas Tech this season

Straight up5-0 · 100% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)

Baylor this season

Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 4

OpponentTexas TechBaylor
Houston
Big 12
vs W 28-26 previewat Wk 13 · scheduled preview
Colorado
Big 12
at W 29-7 previewvs W 23-13 preview
Arizona St
Big 12
vs Wk 7 · scheduled previewat W 55-19 preview
TCU
Big 12
vs Wk 13 · scheduled previewvs Wk 7 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Baylor leads 10–9 · Baylor won the last one
19 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 0.7 points toward Baylor
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20242024-10-19Baylor 59 — 35 Texas Techat TTUBaylor
20232023-10-07Texas Tech 39 — 14 Baylorat BAYTexas Tech
20222022-10-29Baylor 45 — 17 Texas Techat TTUBaylor
20212021-11-27Texas Tech 24 — 27 Baylorat BAYBaylor
20202020-11-14Baylor 23 — 24 Texas Techat TTUTexas Tech
20192019-10-12Texas Tech 30 — 33 Baylorat BAYBaylor
20182018-11-24Baylor 35 — 24 Texas TechneutralBaylor
20172017-11-11Texas Tech 38 — 24 BaylorneutralTexas Tech
20162016-11-25Baylor 35 — 54 Texas TechneutralTexas Tech
20152015-10-03Texas Tech 35 — 63 BaylorneutralBaylor
20142014-11-29Baylor 48 — 46 Texas TechneutralBaylor
20132013-11-16Texas Tech 34 — 63 BaylorneutralBaylor
20122012-11-24Baylor 52 — 45 Texas TechneutralBaylor
20112011-11-26Texas Tech 42 — 66 BaylorneutralBaylor
20102010-10-09Baylor 38 — 45 Texas TechneutralTexas Tech
20092009-11-28Texas Tech 20 — 13 BaylorneutralTexas Tech
20082008-11-29Baylor 28 — 35 Texas Techat TTUTexas Tech
20072007-11-03Texas Tech 38 — 7 Baylorat BAYTexas Tech
20062006-11-04Baylor 21 — 55 Texas Techat TTUTexas Tech

Texas Tech leaders 2026 regular season

PassingWill Hammond QB #1597/142, 1102 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT
Tommy Castellanos QB #12/4, 35 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushingJ'Koby Williams RB #2063 CAR, 373 YDS, 3 TD
Cameron Dickey RB #857 CAR, 242 YDS, 4 TD
Quinten Joyner RB #035 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
ReceivingKenny Johnson WR #417 REC, 298 YDS, 1 TD
Coy Eakin WR #316 REC, 194 YDS, 2 TD
J'Koby Williams RB #2019 REC, 137 YDS
Terrance Carter Jr. TE #713 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesAustin Romaine LB #1535
Ben Roberts LB #1332
John Curry LB #628
SacksA.J. Holmes Jr. DL #102.5
Jamond Mathis LB #82.5
LaDamion Guyton LB #322
InterceptionsJohn Curry LB #62
Brice Pollock CB #142
Austin Romaine LB #152
full roster and per-player history

Baylor leaders 2026 regular season

PassingDJ Lagway QB #271/133, 860 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT
Nate Bennett QB #1247/62, 581 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT
RushingDawson Pendergrass RB #3581 CAR, 316 YDS, 1 TD
Caden Knighten RB #1149 CAR, 244 YDS, 2 TD
Ryelan Morris RB #2522 CAR, 182 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingGavin Freeman WR #642 REC, 479 YDS, 2 TD
Louis Brown IV WR #415 REC, 253 YDS, 3 TD
Jayden McGowan WR #159 REC, 210 YDS, 4 TD
Jadon Porter WR #39 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesTravion Barnes LB #533
Micah Gifford S #2430
Devon Jordan CB #722
SacksDaniel Cobbs S #143
Bo Onu S #213
Devonte Tezino DL #592
InterceptionsDevon Jordan CB #72
Reggie Bush II CB #221
Micah Gifford S #241
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.