Wk 4 · 2026
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears — Sat, Sep 26
Sat, Sep 26 ·
McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
· ESPN2 FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:00pET
BAY -8.5 · total 54.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential BAY by 15.9
What is at stake
A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Colorado form
L 7-29vs TTUL 13-23at BAYL 7-41at NUW 52-21vs WEBW 14-13at GT
2026 season
Baylor form
W 55-19at ASUW 23-13vs COLOW 36-19vs LTW 44-3vs PVL 16-17at AUB
2026 season
Colorado this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Baylor this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Colorado | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech Big 12 | vs L 7-29 preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Arizona St Big 12 | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at W 55-19 preview |
| Houston Big 12 | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| UCF Big 12 | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Baylor leads 3–2 · Baylor won the last one
5 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
1.6 points toward Colorado
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-26 | Colorado 13 — 23 Baylor | at BAY | Baylor |
| 2024 | 2024-09-21 | Baylor 31 — 38 Colorado | at COLO | Colorado |
| 2010 | 2010-10-16 | Baylor 31 — 25 Colorado | at COLO | Baylor |
| 2007 | 2007-10-06 | Colorado 43 — 23 Baylor | at BAY | Colorado |
| 2006 | 2006-10-07 | Baylor 34 — 31 Colorado | at COLO | Baylor |
Colorado leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Julian Lewis QB #10 | 61/95, 733 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT |
| Isaac Wilson QB #16 | 40/71, 443 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT | |
| Rushing | Micah Welch RB #29 | 44 CAR, 218 YDS, 2 TD |
| JaQuail Smith RB #23 | 38 CAR, 186 YDS | |
| Damian Henderson II RB #26 | 26 CAR, 127 YDS | |
| Receiving | Joseph Williams WR #8 | 32 REC, 454 YDS, 5 TD |
| DeAndre Moore Jr. WR #3 | 18 REC, 242 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Quanell Farrakhan Jr. WR #14 | 12 REC, 148 YDS | |
| Quentin Gibson WR #6 | 9 REC, 73 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Randon Fontenette DB #7 | 42 |
| Gideon Lampron LB #44 | 38 | |
| Naeten Mitchell DB #4 | 37 | |
| Sacks | Lamont Lester Jr. DL #56 | 4 |
| Toby Anene DE #53 | 3 | |
| Santana Hopper DL #97 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Randon Fontenette DB #7 | 1 |
| Jason Stokes Jr. DB #13 | 1 |
Baylor leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | DJ Lagway QB #2 | 71/133, 860 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT |
| Nate Bennett QB #12 | 47/62, 581 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT | |
| Rushing | Dawson Pendergrass RB #35 | 81 CAR, 316 YDS, 1 TD |
| Caden Knighten RB #11 | 49 CAR, 244 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Ryelan Morris RB #25 | 22 CAR, 182 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Gavin Freeman WR #6 | 42 REC, 479 YDS, 2 TD |
| Louis Brown IV WR #4 | 15 REC, 253 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Jayden McGowan WR #15 | 9 REC, 210 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jadon Porter WR #3 | 9 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Travion Barnes LB #5 | 33 |
| Micah Gifford S #24 | 30 | |
| Devon Jordan CB #7 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Daniel Cobbs S #14 | 3 |
| Bo Onu S #21 | 3 | |
| Devonte Tezino DL #59 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Devon Jordan CB #7 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush II CB #22 | 1 | |
| Micah Gifford S #24 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.