Wk 4 · 2026
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF Knights — Sat, Sep 26
Sat, Sep 26 ·
Acrisure Bounce House, Orlando, FL
· FS1 FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
3:30pET
TCU -3.5 · total 48.5 DraftKings opened +3 · 0.5 toward TCU
Ratings differential UCF by 2.2
What is at stake
A Big 12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
TCU form
L 10-17vs BYUL 13-21at UCFW 31-7vs ARSTW 63-7vs GRAML 10-15vs UNC
2026 season
UCF form
L 28-42at OKSTL 17-27at HOUW 21-13vs TCUW 44-30vs GASTL 7-12at PITT
2026 season
TCU this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
UCF this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | TCU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| BYU Big 12 | vs L 10-17 preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Baylor Big 12 | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Kansas Big 12 | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, UCF leads 2–0 · UCF has won the last 2
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
4.5 points toward UCF
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-26 | TCU 13 — 21 UCF | at UCF | UCF |
| 2024 | 2024-09-14 | UCF 35 — 34 TCU | at TCU | UCF |
TCU leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jaden Craig QB #1 | 108/157, 1400 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT |
| Adam Schobel QB #11 | 0/1, 0 YDS | |
| Rushing | Jeremy Payne RB #26 | 87 CAR, 432 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jon Denman RB #2 | 23 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Joe Pitchford RB #24 | 11 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Ed Small WR #18 | 28 REC, 403 YDS, 1 TD |
| Kari Ashley TE #81 | 25 REC, 374 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jeremy Scott WR #6 | 13 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jacobe Hayes WR #80 | 9 REC, 133 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Hudson Hooper LB #37 | 27 |
| Jamel Johnson S #2 | 26 | |
| Max Carroll LB #3 | 21 | |
| Sacks | Ansel Din-Mbuh DT #92 | 2 |
| John Schobel EDGE #14 | 2 | |
| Markis Deal DT #95 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Vernon Glover Jr. CB #1 | 1 |
| Teon Parks CB #21 | 1 |
UCF leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Keyone Jenkins QB #12 | 53/76, 541 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT |
| Alonza Barnett III QB #14 | 31/49, 344 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Duke Watson RB #26 | 49 CAR, 404 YDS, 3 TD |
| Landen Chambers RB #11 | 24 CAR, 138 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Taevion Swint RB #4 | 25 CAR, 135 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Josh Derry WR #5 | 17 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD |
| Waden Charles WR #9 | 14 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Ric'Darious Farmer WR #6 | 9 REC, 95 YDS | |
| Caden Piening TE #18 | 9 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Tackett Curtis LB #24 | 33 |
| Demari Henderson DB #8 | 29 | |
| Lewis Carter LB #20 | 24 | |
| Sacks | Isaiah Nixon EDGE #6 | 2.5 |
| Aymeric Koumba EDGE #12 | 1.5 | |
| Demari Henderson DB #8 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Demari Henderson DB #8 | 2 |
| Jayden Williams DB #2 | 1 | |
| Jayden Bellamy DB #1 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.