Also oursNFL Schedulethis site, for the NFLThe CFB Kingodds and projections — a paid site
CFB Schedule college football
CFBNFL
Wk 5 · 2026

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles — Sat, Oct 3

Sat, Oct 3 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL · ESPN2 FINAL

Weather

No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
Virginia Cavaliers
ACC · 4-2
7
at
3:30pET
UVA -1.5 · total 51.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential FSU by 1.8
Florida State Seminoles
ACC · 3-3
38

What is at stake

A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Virginia: +5.1#46
Efficiency margin
Florida St: +4.5#48
Virginia: 31.6
Offense (pts/100)
Florida St: 34.5
Virginia: 17.6
Defense (pts/100)
Florida St: 21.0
Virginia: 68.7
Pace (plays/g)
Florida St: 64.7
Virginia: 5.54
Yards / play
Florida St: 6.33
Virginia: 4.85
Yards / play allowed
Florida St: 6.12
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Virginia: 32.8
Points / game
Florida St: 31.0
Virginia: 19.2
Points allowed
Florida St: 25.3
Virginia: 380
Yards / game
Florida St: 410
Virginia: 314
Yards allowed
Florida St: 410
Virginia: 162
Pass yds allowed
Florida St: 245
Virginia: 152
Rush yds allowed
Florida St: 166
Virginia: 0.33
Turnovers / game
Florida St: 1.33
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Virginia form

W 28-25vs SYRL 7-38at FSUW 42-3vs DELL 27-38vs WVUW 59-3vs NORF
2026 season

Florida St form

L 20-44at LOUW 38-7vs UVAW 34-7vs CARKL 36-50at ALAL 24-27vs SMU
2026 season

Virginia this season

Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)

Florida St this season

Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 2

OpponentVirginiaFlorida St
NC State
ACC
vs W 34-8 previewvs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
SMU
ACC
at Wk 7 · scheduled previewvs L 24-27 preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Florida St leads 4–3 · Florida St won the last one
7 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 11.7 points toward Florida St
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20262026-10-03Virginia 7 — 38 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20252025-09-26Florida St 38 — 46 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20192019-09-14Florida St 24 — 31 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20142014-11-08Virginia 20 — 34 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St
20112011-11-19Virginia 14 — 13 Florida Stat FSUVirginia
20102010-10-02Florida St 34 — 14 Virginiaat UVAFlorida St
20062006-11-04Virginia 0 — 33 Florida Stat FSUFlorida St

Virginia leaders 2026 regular season

PassingBeau Pribula QB #780/118, 961 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT
Eli Holstein QB #1012/18, 180 YDS, 3 TD
RushingJekail Middlebrook RB #2150 CAR, 242 YDS, 1 TD
Xavier Brown RB #031 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD
Xay Davis RB #2532 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingKameron Courtney WR #515 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD
Rico Flores Jr. WR #1111 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD
Da'Shawn Martin WR #1811 REC, 148 YDS, 4 TD
Josiah Abdullah WR #134 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesJacobie Henderson CB #1027
Myles Brown LB #1323
Fisher Camac DE #1422
SacksMatthew Fobbs-White DE #163
Nnanna Anyanwu DE #332
Fisher Camac DE #141
InterceptionsBrandyn Hillman S #63
Keke Adams S #212
Corey Costner S #41
full roster and per-player history

Florida St leaders 2026 regular season

PassingAshton Daniels QB #1491/153, 1320 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT
Kevin Sperry QB #92/3, 14 YDS
RushingOusmane Kromah RB #32100 CAR, 565 YDS, 5 TD
Ashton Daniels QB #1470 CAR, 323 YDS, 10 TD
Quintrevion Wisner RB #529 CAR, 141 YDS
ReceivingJayvan Boggs WR #1516 REC, 299 YDS, 1 TD
Duce Robinson WR #017 REC, 294 YDS, 2 TD
Micahi Danzy WR #819 REC, 293 YDS, 2 TD
Samuel Singleton Jr. RB #38 REC, 162 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesCJ Richard Jr. DB #1138
Chris Jones LB #1037
Omar Graham Jr. LB #931
SacksRylan Kennedy DL #155
Mikai Gbayor LB #282
Mandrell Desir DL #32
InterceptionsQuindarrius Jones DB #01
Nehemiah Chandler DB #121
Ashlynd Barker DB #71
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.