Wk 6 · 2026
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets — Sat, Oct 10
Sat, Oct 10 ·
Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
· ESPN+ FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
3:30pET
TOL -18.5 · total 54.5 DraftKings opened -19.5 · 1 toward BUF
Ratings differential TOL by 15.1
What is at stake
A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Buffalo form
W 23-8at TOLL 17-20vs WMUW 31-28vs RMUL 13-55at PSUL 20-33at FIU
2026 season
Toledo form
L 8-23vs BUFW 39-24at BALLW 41-16vs SDSUW 49-48vs TEMW 63-10vs CCSU
2026 season
Buffalo this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Toledo this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread2-3-1 · 40% (6 games)
Over / under5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| W Michigan MAC | vs L 17-20 preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| UMass MAC | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Bowling Green MAC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Ball State MAC | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at W 39-24 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Buffalo leads 6–3 · Buffalo has won the last 2
9 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
5.2 points toward Buffalo
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-10 | Buffalo 23 — 8 Toledo | at TOL | Buffalo |
| 2024 | 2024-10-12 | Toledo 15 — 30 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2023 | 2023-10-31 | Buffalo 13 — 31 Toledo | at TOL | Toledo |
| 2022 | 2022-10-22 | Toledo 27 — 34 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2019 | 2019-11-20 | Toledo 30 — 49 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2018 | 2018-10-20 | Buffalo 31 — 17 Toledo | at TOL | Buffalo |
| 2013 | 2013-11-12 | Buffalo 41 — 51 Toledo | at TOL | Toledo |
| 2012 | 2012-10-27 | Toledo 25 — 20 Buffalo | at BUF | Toledo |
| 2007 | 2007-10-13 | Toledo 33 — 43 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
Buffalo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jason Wright QB #7 | 49/98, 555 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT |
| Elijah Holmes QB #16 | 35/61, 250 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Messiah Burch RB #4 | 73 CAR, 352 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nino Hill RB #0 | 41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James McNeil Jr. RB #24 | 23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Chance Morrow WR #6 | 32 REC, 397 YDS, 6 TD |
| Clint Walker TE #5 | 11 REC, 82 YDS | |
| Patrick Clacks III WR #3 | 4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Andrews WR #2 | 10 REC, 77 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 38 |
| Miles Greer S #6 | 31 | |
| John Keough S #7 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Logan Goodwin EDGE #17 | 2 |
| SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 | |
| Stevie Bracey LB #2 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 |
Toledo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | John Alan Richter QB #6 | 98/153, 1362 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT |
| Walter Moses QB #11 | 1/1, 40 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | CJ Miller RB #22 | 54 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD |
| Connor Walendzak RB #8 | 57 CAR, 336 YDS, 6 TD | |
| Autavius Ison RB #4 | 39 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Adjatay Dabbs WR #3 | 25 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD |
| Bryson Hammer WR #12 | 16 REC, 298 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rico Bond WR #1 | 11 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Daryl Barnett Jr. WR #19 | 10 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Isaac Zay LB #44 | 41 |
| Armorion Smith S #7 | 38 | |
| Julian Fox LB #10 | 36 | |
| Sacks | Andrew Zock DE #0 | 3.5 |
| Lucas Lambert-Pipkin DT #52 | 2 | |
| Isaac Zay LB #44 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Isaac Zay LB #44 | 2 |
| Julian Fox LB #10 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.