Wk 8 · 2026
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls — Sat, Oct 24
Sat, Oct 24 ·
Broadview Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Weather
62° / 41° drizzle
19% chance of precipitation
Kickoff time is not set yet, so this is the forecast for the day rather than for the hour.
Forecast from Open-Meteo
MAC · 2-4
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential BUF by 1.9
MAC · 3-3
What is at stake
A MAC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Bowling Green form
W 38-10vs SACW 24-20at M-OHL 6-14vs USFL 7-55at ISUL 7-56at NEB
2026 season
Buffalo form
W 23-8at TOLL 17-20vs WMUW 31-28vs RMUL 13-55at PSUL 20-33at FIU
2026 season
Bowling Green this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Buffalo this season
Straight up3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | Bowling Green | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Miami OH MAC | at W 24-20 preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Ball State MAC | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| W Michigan MAC | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs L 17-20 preview |
| Toledo MAC | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at W 23-8 preview |
| UMass MAC | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Bowling Green leads 11–8 · Buffalo won the last one
19 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
3.5 points toward Buffalo
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-11-01 | Buffalo 28 — 3 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Buffalo |
| 2023 | 2023-10-14 | Bowling Green 24 — 14 Buffalo | at BUF | Bowling Green |
| 2022 | 2022-10-08 | Buffalo 38 — 7 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Buffalo |
| 2021 | 2021-10-30 | Bowling Green 56 — 44 Buffalo | at BUF | Bowling Green |
| 2020 | 2020-11-17 | Buffalo 42 — 17 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Buffalo |
| 2019 | 2019-11-29 | Bowling Green 7 — 49 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2018 | 2018-11-23 | Buffalo 44 — 14 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Buffalo |
| 2017 | 2017-11-07 | Bowling Green 28 — 38 Buffalo | at BUF | Buffalo |
| 2016 | 2016-11-25 | Buffalo 19 — 27 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Bowling Green |
| 2015 | 2015-10-03 | Bowling Green 28 — 22 Buffalo | at BUF | Bowling Green |
| 2014 | 2014-10-04 | Buffalo 35 — 36 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Bowling Green |
| 2013 | 2013-11-29 | Bowling Green 24 — 7 Buffalo | at BUF | Bowling Green |
| 2012 | 2012-11-23 | Buffalo 7 — 21 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Bowling Green |
| 2011 | 2011-11-25 | Bowling Green 42 — 28 Buffalo | at BUF | Bowling Green |
| 2010 | 2010-10-02 | Buffalo 28 — 26 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Buffalo |
| 2009 | 2009-11-03 | Bowling Green 30 — 29 Buffalo | at BUF | Bowling Green |
| 2008 | 2008-11-21 | Buffalo 40 — 34 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Buffalo |
| 2007 | 2007-11-17 | Bowling Green 31 — 17 Buffalo | at BUF | Bowling Green |
| 2006 | 2006-09-09 | Buffalo 40 — 48 Bowling Green | at BGSU | Bowling Green |
Bowling Green leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jay Kastantin QB #17 | 83/128, 870 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT |
| Austin Novosad QB #16 | 1/5, -1 YDS | |
| Rushing | Austyn Dendy RB #1 | 62 CAR, 185 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nakai Amachree RB #2 | 33 CAR, 113 YDS | |
| Ke'Marion Baldwin RB #4 | 12 CAR, 50 YDS | |
| Receiving | Winn Sharp WR #18 | 15 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jeremiah Scoby TE #0 | 18 REC, 182 YDS | |
| Brennan Ridley WR #5 | 19 REC, 167 YDS | |
| Eli Jacon-Duffy TE #8 | 14 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Dorian Pringle LB #3 | 49 |
| Kal-El Pascal S #0 | 38 | |
| Preston EstoEsta S #9 | 29 | |
| Sacks | Myles Bradley DE #23 | 6.5 |
| Eriq George DE #5 | 3 | |
| Cashmire Lewis LB #8 | 3 | |
| Interceptions | JoJo Johnson CB #2 | 1 |
| Drey Braxton DB #1 | 1 |
Buffalo leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jason Wright QB #7 | 49/98, 555 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT |
| Elijah Holmes QB #16 | 35/61, 250 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Messiah Burch RB #4 | 73 CAR, 352 YDS, 1 TD |
| Nino Hill RB #0 | 41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James McNeil Jr. RB #24 | 23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Chance Morrow WR #6 | 32 REC, 397 YDS, 6 TD |
| Clint Walker TE #5 | 11 REC, 82 YDS | |
| Patrick Clacks III WR #3 | 4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Andrews WR #2 | 10 REC, 77 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 38 |
| Miles Greer S #6 | 31 | |
| John Keough S #7 | 30 | |
| Sacks | Logan Goodwin EDGE #17 | 2 |
| SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 | |
| Stevie Bracey LB #2 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | SaVeon Brown LB #1 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.