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Wk 8 · 2026

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers — Fri, Oct 23

Fri, Oct 23 · Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA · ESPN

Weather at kickoff

55°F clear
2% chance of precipitation · wind 4 mph
Forecast from Open-Meteo
Duke Blue Devils
ACC · 4-1
at
7:00pET
UVA -6.5 · total 53.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential UVA by 1.0
Virginia Cavaliers
ACC · 4-2

What is at stake

A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Duke: +6.5#42
Efficiency margin
Virginia: +5.1#46
Duke: 34.4
Offense (pts/100)
Virginia: 31.6
Duke: 18.9
Defense (pts/100)
Virginia: 17.6
Duke: 70.6
Pace (plays/g)
Virginia: 68.7
Duke: 6.47
Yards / play
Virginia: 5.54
Duke: 4.95
Yards / play allowed
Virginia: 4.85
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Duke: 34.0
Points / game
Virginia: 32.8
Duke: 14.4
Points allowed
Virginia: 19.2
Duke: 457
Yards / game
Virginia: 380
Duke: 286
Yards allowed
Virginia: 314
Duke: 202
Pass yds allowed
Virginia: 162
Duke: 84
Rush yds allowed
Virginia: 152
Duke: 0.40
Turnovers / game
Virginia: 0.33
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Duke form

L 25-28at GTW 62-7vs W&MW 35-7vs STANW 31-27at ILLW 17-3vs TULN
2026 season

Virginia form

W 28-25vs SYRL 7-38at FSUW 42-3vs DELL 27-38vs WVUW 59-3vs NORF
2026 season

Duke this season

Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)

Virginia this season

Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 3

OpponentDukeVirginia
North Carolina
ACC
vs Wk 7 · scheduled previewvs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
NC State
ACC
at Wk 10 · scheduled previewvs W 34-8 preview
Wake Forest
ACC
at Wk 13 · scheduled previewat Wk 9 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Virginia leads 12–8 · Duke won the last one
20 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 5.1 points toward Virginia
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20252025-12-06Duke 27 — 20 VirginianeutralDuke
20252025-11-15Virginia 34 — 17 Dukeat DUKEVirginia
20232023-11-18Duke 27 — 30 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20222022-10-01Virginia 17 — 38 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20212021-10-16Duke 0 — 48 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20202020-09-26Duke 20 — 38 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20192019-10-19Duke 14 — 48 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20182018-10-20Virginia 28 — 14 Dukeat DUKEVirginia
20172017-10-07Duke 21 — 28 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20162016-10-01Virginia 34 — 20 Dukeat DUKEVirginia
20152015-11-21Duke 34 — 42 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20142014-10-18Virginia 13 — 20 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20132013-10-19Duke 35 — 22 Virginiaat UVADuke
20122012-10-06Virginia 17 — 42 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20112011-11-12Duke 21 — 31 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20102010-11-06Virginia 48 — 55 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20092009-10-31Duke 28 — 17 Virginiaat UVADuke
20082008-09-27Virginia 3 — 31 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20072007-09-08Duke 13 — 24 Virginiaat UVAVirginia
20062006-09-30Virginia 37 — 0 Dukeat DUKEVirginia

Duke leaders 2026 regular season

PassingWalker Eget QB #258/93, 721 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Dan Mahan QB #106/9, 126 YDS, 3 TD
RushingNate Sheppard RB #2091 CAR, 644 YDS, 6 TD
CJ Campbell Jr. RB #036 CAR, 139 YDS
Jayvian Tanelus RB #2216 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
ReceivingJeremiah Hasley TE #8513 REC, 195 YDS
Jonah Burton WR #613 REC, 187 YDS, 1 TD
Jaivon Solomon WR #45 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
Jared Richardson WR #175 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesNick Morris Jr. LB #723
Andrew Pellicciotta S #3522
Dylan Flowers CB #019
SacksBradley Gompers LB #243
Kevin O'Connor DE #152
Bryce Davis DE #122
InterceptionsEvan Smith CB #41
full roster and per-player history

Virginia leaders 2026 regular season

PassingBeau Pribula QB #780/118, 961 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT
Eli Holstein QB #1012/18, 180 YDS, 3 TD
RushingJekail Middlebrook RB #2150 CAR, 242 YDS, 1 TD
Xavier Brown RB #031 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD
Xay Davis RB #2532 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingKameron Courtney WR #515 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD
Rico Flores Jr. WR #1111 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD
Da'Shawn Martin WR #1811 REC, 148 YDS, 4 TD
Josiah Abdullah WR #134 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesJacobie Henderson CB #1027
Myles Brown LB #1323
Fisher Camac DE #1422
SacksMatthew Fobbs-White DE #163
Nnanna Anyanwu DE #332
Fisher Camac DE #141
InterceptionsBrandyn Hillman S #63
Keke Adams S #212
Corey Costner S #41
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.