Wk 12 · 2026
North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers — Sat, Nov 21
Sat, Nov 21 ·
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 40 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
ACC · 3-2
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential UVA by 3.4
ACC · 4-2
What is at stake
A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
North Carolina form
W 21-17at PITTL 26-37vs NDL 20-28at CLEMW 35-3vs ETSUW 15-10at TCU
2026 season
Virginia form
W 28-25vs SYRL 7-38at FSUW 42-3vs DELL 27-38vs WVUW 59-3vs NORF
2026 season
North Carolina this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Virginia this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | North Carolina | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Duke ACC | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Syracuse ACC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs W 28-25 preview |
| NC State ACC | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs W 34-8 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 10–10 · Virginia won the last one
20 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
5.7 points toward North Carolina
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-10-25 | Virginia 17 — 16 North Carolina | at UNC | Virginia |
| 2024 | 2024-10-26 | North Carolina 41 — 14 Virginia | at UVA | North Carolina |
| 2023 | 2023-10-21 | Virginia 31 — 27 North Carolina | at UNC | Virginia |
| 2022 | 2022-11-05 | North Carolina 31 — 28 Virginia | at UVA | North Carolina |
| 2021 | 2021-09-18 | Virginia 39 — 59 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2020 | 2020-10-31 | North Carolina 41 — 44 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2019 | 2019-11-02 | Virginia 38 — 31 North Carolina | at UNC | Virginia |
| 2018 | 2018-10-27 | North Carolina 21 — 31 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2017 | 2017-10-14 | Virginia 20 — 14 North Carolina | at UNC | Virginia |
| 2016 | 2016-10-22 | North Carolina 35 — 14 Virginia | at UVA | North Carolina |
| 2015 | 2015-10-24 | Virginia 13 — 26 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2014 | 2014-10-25 | North Carolina 28 — 27 Virginia | at UVA | North Carolina |
| 2013 | 2013-11-09 | Virginia 14 — 45 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2012 | 2012-11-15 | North Carolina 37 — 13 Virginia | at UVA | North Carolina |
| 2011 | 2011-09-17 | Virginia 17 — 28 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2010 | 2010-10-16 | North Carolina 44 — 10 Virginia | at UVA | North Carolina |
| 2009 | 2009-10-03 | Virginia 16 — 3 North Carolina | at UNC | Virginia |
| 2008 | 2008-10-18 | North Carolina 13 — 16 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
| 2007 | 2007-09-15 | Virginia 22 — 20 North Carolina | at UNC | Virginia |
| 2006 | 2006-10-19 | North Carolina 0 — 23 Virginia | at UVA | Virginia |
North Carolina leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Billy Edwards Jr. QB #9 | 61/106, 820 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Miles O'Neill QB #8 | 3/6, 22 YDS | |
| Rushing | Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 43 CAR, 251 YDS |
| Demon June RB #0 | 31 CAR, 128 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jaylen McGill RB #27 | 17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 20 REC, 273 YDS |
| Jelani Thurman TE #45 | 16 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD | |
| C.J. Sadler WR #14 | 5 REC, 87 YDS | |
| Trech Kekahuna WR #2 | 6 REC, 71 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Derek McDonald LB #15 | 36 |
| Peyton Seelmann LB #10 | 31 | |
| Leroy Jackson DL #91 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Xavier Lewis DL #90 | 6 |
| Jaylen Harvey DL #11 | 2 | |
| Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Greg Smith DB #1 | 2 |
Virginia leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Beau Pribula QB #7 | 80/118, 961 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT |
| Eli Holstein QB #10 | 12/18, 180 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Rushing | Jekail Middlebrook RB #21 | 50 CAR, 242 YDS, 1 TD |
| Xavier Brown RB #0 | 31 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Xay Davis RB #25 | 32 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Kameron Courtney WR #5 | 15 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD |
| Rico Flores Jr. WR #11 | 11 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Da'Shawn Martin WR #18 | 11 REC, 148 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Josiah Abdullah WR #13 | 4 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Jacobie Henderson CB #10 | 27 |
| Myles Brown LB #13 | 23 | |
| Fisher Camac DE #14 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Matthew Fobbs-White DE #16 | 3 |
| Nnanna Anyanwu DE #33 | 2 | |
| Fisher Camac DE #14 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Brandyn Hillman S #6 | 3 |
| Keke Adams S #21 | 2 | |
| Corey Costner S #4 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.