Wk 5 · 2026
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
· ESPN · Disney+ FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:00pET
ND -21 · total 46.5 DraftKings opened +23.5 · 2.5 toward UNC
Ratings differential ND by 20.6
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race. Notre Dame is ranked #3 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Notre Dame form
W 58-7vs STANW 37-26at UNCW 49-10at PURW 27-10vs MSUW 52-0vs RICE
2026 season
North Carolina form
W 21-17at PITTL 26-37vs NDL 20-28at CLEMW 35-3vs ETSUW 15-10at TCU
2026 season
Notre Dame this season
Straight up6-0 · 100% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
North Carolina this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 2
| Opponent | Notre Dame | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Miami ACC | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Syracuse ACC | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Notre Dame leads 7–1 · Notre Dame has won the last 6
8 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
11.5 points toward Notre Dame
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | Notre Dame 37 — 26 North Carolina | at UNC | Notre Dame |
| 2022 | 2022-09-24 | Notre Dame 45 — 32 North Carolina | at UNC | Notre Dame |
| 2021 | 2021-10-30 | North Carolina 34 — 44 Notre Dame | at ND | Notre Dame |
| 2020 | 2020-11-27 | Notre Dame 31 — 17 North Carolina | at UNC | Notre Dame |
| 2017 | 2017-10-07 | Notre Dame 33 — 10 North Carolina | at UNC | Notre Dame |
| 2014 | 2014-10-11 | North Carolina 43 — 50 Notre Dame | at ND | Notre Dame |
| 2008 | 2008-10-11 | Notre Dame 24 — 29 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2006 | 2006-11-04 | North Carolina 26 — 45 Notre Dame | at ND | Notre Dame |
Notre Dame leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | CJ Carr QB #13 | 88/124, 1197 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT |
| Noah Grubbs QB #10 | 9/15, 108 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Aneyas Williams RB #22 | 60 CAR, 266 YDS, 4 TD |
| Nolan James Jr. RB #2 | 55 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Jonaz Walton RB #20 | 39 CAR, 228 YDS | |
| Receiving | Jordan Faison WR #6 | 25 REC, 371 YDS, 4 TD |
| Micah Gilbert WR #14 | 18 REC, 368 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jaden Greathouse WR #1 | 8 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Nolan James Jr. RB #2 | 10 REC, 87 YDS, 3 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Drayk Bowen LB #34 | 24 |
| Adon Shuler S #8 | 21 | |
| Jaylen Sneed LB #3 | 20 | |
| Sacks | Bryce Young DL #95 | 3 |
| Boubacar Traore DL #5 | 2.5 | |
| Loghan Thomas DL #10 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Luke Talich S #28 | 2 |
| DJ McKinney CB #2 | 1 | |
| Adon Shuler S #8 | 1 |
North Carolina leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Billy Edwards Jr. QB #9 | 61/106, 820 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Miles O'Neill QB #8 | 3/6, 22 YDS | |
| Rushing | Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 43 CAR, 251 YDS |
| Demon June RB #0 | 31 CAR, 128 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jaylen McGill RB #27 | 17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 20 REC, 273 YDS |
| Jelani Thurman TE #45 | 16 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD | |
| C.J. Sadler WR #14 | 5 REC, 87 YDS | |
| Trech Kekahuna WR #2 | 6 REC, 71 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Derek McDonald LB #15 | 36 |
| Peyton Seelmann LB #10 | 31 | |
| Leroy Jackson DL #91 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Xavier Lewis DL #90 | 6 |
| Jaylen Harvey DL #11 | 2 | |
| Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Greg Smith DB #1 | 2 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.