Wk 7 · 2026
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles — Sat, Oct 17
Sat, Oct 17 ·
M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS
· ESPN+
Sun Belt · 2-4
at
7:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential ARST by 1.2
Sun Belt · 1-4
What is at stake
A Sun Belt game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Arkansas St form
L 49-56vs USAL 20-23at ULW 17-14vs KENNL 7-31at TCUW 52-7vs WGA
2026 season
Southern Miss form
L 34-55at TROYL 21-24at TULNL 20-48vs CONNL 8-43at AUBW 49-3vs ALCN
2026 season
Arkansas St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Southern Miss this season
Straight up1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | Arkansas St | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Sun Belt | at L 20-23 preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| South Alabama Sun Belt | vs L 49-56 preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| UL Monroe Sun Belt | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Louisiana Tech Sun Belt | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Troy Sun Belt | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at L 34-55 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Southern Miss leads 4–2 · Southern Miss won the last one
6 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
1.2 points toward Arkansas St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-11-08 | Southern Miss 27 — 21 Arkansas St | at ARST | Southern Miss |
| 2024 | 2024-10-19 | Arkansas St 44 — 28 Southern Miss | at USM | Arkansas St |
| 2023 | 2023-09-23 | Southern Miss 37 — 44 Arkansas St | at ARST | Arkansas St |
| 2022 | 2022-10-15 | Arkansas St 19 — 20 Southern Miss | at USM | Southern Miss |
| 2008 | 2008-09-13 | Southern Miss 27 — 24 Arkansas St | at ARST | Southern Miss |
| 2007 | 2007-11-24 | Arkansas St 10 — 16 Southern Miss | at USM | Southern Miss |
Arkansas St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Trey Owens QB #9 | 121/176, 1461 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT |
| Rushing | Solomon Baggett RB #23 | 46 CAR, 239 YDS, 2 TD |
| Trey Owens QB #9 | 38 CAR, 149 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James Lee RB #27 | 17 CAR, 123 YDS | |
| Receiving | Hunter Summers WR #3 | 29 REC, 408 YDS, 3 TD |
| Chauncy Cobb WR #2 | 27 REC, 307 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Bonelli WR #10 | 20 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jabari Bush TE #17 | 9 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Joe Drew S #16 | 59 |
| Five Hamilton S #5 | 35 | |
| AG McGhee S #6 | 32 | |
| Sacks | Ryan Reese DT #54 | 1.5 |
| Robert Stevens LB #23 | 1 | |
| Elias Sherman DT #92 | 0.5 | |
| Interceptions | Brandon Greil S #15 | 1 |
| Dontrae Henderson CB #0 | 1 | |
| Robert Stevens LB #23 | 1 |
Southern Miss leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Landry Lyddy QB #18 | 62/98, 824 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT |
| Ethan Hampton QB #5 | 45/75, 419 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT | |
| Rushing | Steven Robinson RB #14 | 78 CAR, 348 YDS, 4 TD |
| Jamarice Wilder RB #6 | 42 CAR, 209 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Robert Briggs RB #2 | 4 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Mario Sanders WR #1 | 28 REC, 404 YDS, 5 TD |
| AJ Little WR #8 | 16 REC, 251 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kaden Saunders WR #7 | 10 REC, 163 YDS | |
| MJ Johnson WR #3 | 10 REC, 120 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Mathis Haygood LB #13 | 43 |
| Michael Robinson III DB #24 | 41 | |
| Landon Sylvie DB #25 | 33 | |
| Sacks | Jameer Lewis DL #9 | 3 |
| Jyaire Brown DB #3 | 1 | |
| Avery Sledge LB #33 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kobi Albert DB #22 | 3 |
| Landon Sylvie DB #25 | 1 | |
| Jonah Martinez DB #16 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.