Wk 13 · 2026
Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves — Sat, Nov 28
Sat, Nov 28 ·
Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 48 days away. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
Sun Belt · 3-2
at
3:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential TROY by 1.7
Sun Belt · 2-4
What is at stake
A Sun Belt game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Troy form
W 55-34vs USML 10-21at USUL 17-27at MIZW 34-17vs ALSTW 24-21vs SHSU
2026 season
Arkansas St form
L 49-56vs USAL 20-23at ULW 17-14vs KENNL 7-31at TCUW 52-7vs WGA
2026 season
Troy this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Arkansas St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 5
| Opponent | Troy | Arkansas St |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss Sun Belt | vs W 55-34 preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Louisiana Sun Belt | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at L 20-23 preview |
| UL Monroe Sun Belt | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| Louisiana Tech Sun Belt | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| South Alabama Sun Belt | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | vs L 49-56 preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 8–8 · Arkansas St has won the last 2
16 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
3.4 points toward Troy
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-11-01 | Arkansas St 23 — 10 Troy | at TROY | Arkansas St |
| 2024 | 2024-10-26 | Troy 31 — 34 Arkansas St | at ARST | Arkansas St |
| 2023 | 2023-10-07 | Arkansas St 3 — 37 Troy | at TROY | Troy |
| 2022 | 2022-11-26 | Troy 48 — 19 Arkansas St | at ARST | Troy |
| 2020 | 2020-10-31 | Troy 38 — 10 Arkansas St | at ARST | Troy |
| 2019 | 2019-09-28 | Arkansas St 50 — 43 Troy | at TROY | Arkansas St |
| 2017 | 2017-12-02 | Troy 32 — 25 Arkansas St | at ARST | Troy |
| 2016 | 2016-11-17 | Arkansas St 35 — 3 Troy | at TROY | Arkansas St |
| 2013 | 2013-09-12 | Troy 34 — 41 Arkansas St | at ARST | Arkansas St |
| 2012 | 2012-11-17 | Arkansas St 41 — 34 Troy | at TROY | Arkansas St |
| 2011 | 2011-12-03 | Troy 14 — 45 Arkansas St | at ARST | Arkansas St |
| 2010 | 2010-09-25 | Arkansas St 28 — 35 Troy | at TROY | Troy |
| 2009 | 2009-09-26 | Troy 30 — 27 Arkansas St | at ARST | Troy |
| 2008 | 2008-12-06 | Arkansas St 9 — 35 Troy | at TROY | Troy |
| 2007 | 2007-10-27 | Troy 27 — 0 Arkansas St | at ARST | Troy |
| 2006 | 2006-11-18 | Arkansas St 33 — 26 Troy | at TROY | Arkansas St |
Troy leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Goose Crowder QB #9 | 87/153, 1047 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT |
| Evan Crenshaw P #28 | 0/1, 0 YDS | |
| Rushing | Gavin Griffin RB #0 | 69 CAR, 337 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jaheim Merriweather RB #3 | 50 CAR, 281 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jordan Lovett RB #1 | 44 CAR, 254 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | TK Keyes WR #8 | 12 REC, 270 YDS, 3 TD |
| Noreel White WR #4 | 11 REC, 159 YDS | |
| Howard Kinchen WR #18 | 13 REC, 147 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jace Petty WR #17 | 12 REC, 105 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Keno Jones LB #42 | 35 |
| Justin Powe S #6 | 30 | |
| TJ Thompson LB #4 | 25 | |
| Sacks | Donnie Smith DB #22 | 5 |
| Keno Jones LB #42 | 1.5 | |
| Ty Clemons DT #11 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kavion Henderson DE #25 | 1 |
| TJ Thompson LB #4 | 1 | |
| Jabari Strait CB #1 | 1 |
Arkansas St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Trey Owens QB #9 | 121/176, 1461 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT |
| Rushing | Solomon Baggett RB #23 | 46 CAR, 239 YDS, 2 TD |
| Trey Owens QB #9 | 38 CAR, 149 YDS, 2 TD | |
| James Lee RB #27 | 17 CAR, 123 YDS | |
| Receiving | Hunter Summers WR #3 | 29 REC, 408 YDS, 3 TD |
| Chauncy Cobb WR #2 | 27 REC, 307 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jaylen Bonelli WR #10 | 20 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jabari Bush TE #17 | 9 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Joe Drew S #16 | 59 |
| Five Hamilton S #5 | 35 | |
| AG McGhee S #6 | 32 | |
| Sacks | Ryan Reese DT #54 | 1.5 |
| Robert Stevens LB #23 | 1 | |
| Elias Sherman DT #92 | 0.5 | |
| Interceptions | Brandon Greil S #15 | 1 |
| Dontrae Henderson CB #0 | 1 | |
| Robert Stevens LB #23 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.