Wk 12 · 2026
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats — Sat, Nov 21
Sat, Nov 21 ·
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 41 days away. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
CUSA · 2-3
at
2:00pET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential SHSU by 8.7
CUSA · 1-4
What is at stake
A CUSA game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
MTSU form
L 0-55at KUL 13-23at JXSTW 27-20vs NEVL 26-28at MRSHW 38-14vs MUR
2026 season
Sam Houston form
L 3-35at LIBL 14-49at TTUW 59-0vs NICHL 17-23vs TLSAL 21-24at TROY
2026 season
MTSU this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Sam Houston this season
Straight up1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | MTSU | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Jax State CUSA | at L 13-23 preview | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| FIU CUSA | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| Kennesaw St CUSA | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Western KY CUSA | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Liberty CUSA | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at L 3-35 preview |
| New Mexico St CUSA | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 1–1 · MTSU won the last one
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
5.5 points toward MTSU
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-11-22 | Sam Houston 17 — 31 MTSU | at MTSU | MTSU |
| 2023 | 2023-11-25 | MTSU 20 — 23 Sam Houston | at SHSU | Sam Houston |
MTSU leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Roman Gagliano QB #16 | 88/156, 913 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | Antonio Martin RB #8 | 72 CAR, 385 YDS, 1 TD |
| Terrence Brown RB #9 | 18 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Roman Gagliano QB #16 | 20 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Cam'ron Lacy WR #3 | 31 REC, 335 YDS, 4 TD |
| Markus Allen WR #1 | 8 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Neo Clifton WR #85 | 9 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD | |
| AJ Jones WR #6 | 8 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Korey Smith LB #26 | 47 |
| Jackson Lowe CB #2 | 31 | |
| Kalen Woods S #0 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Jackson Lowe CB #2 | 1 |
| La'Garrius Sims LB #42 | 0.5 | |
| Zeion Simpson-Smith DT #95 | 0.5 | |
| Interceptions | Kalen Woods S #0 | 1 |
| James Johnson S #11 | 1 | |
| Jason Hardy CB #21 | 1 |
Sam Houston leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Landyn Locke QB #8 | 116/175, 1306 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT |
| Brett Holloway QB #9 | 3/5, 64 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Alton McCaskill RB #22 | 50 CAR, 201 YDS, 1 TD |
| Landan Brown RB #10 | 25 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Jerrian Parker Jr. RB #6 | 12 CAR, 68 YDS | |
| Receiving | Grady O'Neill WR #7 | 25 REC, 255 YDS, 2 TD |
| Chris Reed WR #2 | 14 REC, 238 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Tim Burns Jr. WR #3 | 9 REC, 205 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Kyan Berry-Johnson WR #5 | 13 REC, 165 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Dean Ford LB #21 | 26 |
| Caesar Magee CB #7 | 24 | |
| Brody Henderson DE #3 | 24 | |
| Sacks | Elijah Groves LB #12 | 2.5 |
| Zion Taylor DE #28 | 1 | |
| Justin Terrell DT #98 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Tyler Bailey S #8 | 1 |
| Cameron Franklin S #15 | 1 | |
| Railyn Adams S #13 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.