Wk 4 · 2026
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks — Sat, Sep 26
Sat, Sep 26 ·
AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL
· ESPN+ FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
7:00pET
JXST -7 · total 50.5 DraftKings opened -9.5 · 2.5 toward MTSU
Ratings differential JXST by 13.3
What is at stake
A CUSA game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
MTSU form
L 0-55at KUL 13-23at JXSTW 27-20vs NEVL 26-28at MRSHW 38-14vs MUR
2026 season
Jax State form
W 27-26at KENNW 23-13vs MTSUW 31-27vs GASOL 27-29at OHIOW 49-7vs EKU
2026 season
MTSU this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Jax State this season
Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | MTSU | Jax State |
|---|---|---|
| Delaware CUSA | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| FIU CUSA | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Kennesaw St CUSA | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at W 27-26 preview |
| Western KY CUSA | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Sam Houston CUSA | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
| New Mexico St CUSA | vs Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Jax State leads 4–0 · Jax State has won the last 4
4 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
12.5 points toward Jax State
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-26 | MTSU 13 — 23 Jax State | at JXST | Jax State |
| 2025 | 2025-10-29 | Jax State 24 — 21 MTSU | at MTSU | Jax State |
| 2024 | 2024-10-23 | MTSU 20 — 42 Jax State | at JXST | Jax State |
| 2023 | 2023-10-04 | Jax State 45 — 30 MTSU | at MTSU | Jax State |
MTSU leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Roman Gagliano QB #16 | 88/156, 913 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | Antonio Martin RB #8 | 72 CAR, 385 YDS, 1 TD |
| Terrence Brown RB #9 | 18 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Roman Gagliano QB #16 | 20 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Cam'ron Lacy WR #3 | 31 REC, 335 YDS, 4 TD |
| Markus Allen WR #1 | 8 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Neo Clifton WR #85 | 9 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD | |
| AJ Jones WR #6 | 8 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Korey Smith LB #26 | 47 |
| Jackson Lowe CB #2 | 31 | |
| Kalen Woods S #0 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Jackson Lowe CB #2 | 1 |
| La'Garrius Sims LB #42 | 0.5 | |
| Zeion Simpson-Smith DT #95 | 0.5 | |
| Interceptions | Kalen Woods S #0 | 1 |
| James Johnson S #11 | 1 | |
| Jason Hardy CB #21 | 1 |
Jax State leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Caden Creel QB #12 | 113/170, 1423 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT |
| Jack Moran QB #15 | 2/2, 25 YDS | |
| Rushing | Caden Creel QB #12 | 86 CAR, 405 YDS, 4 TD |
| Jalen Likely RB #6 | 40 CAR, 201 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Lucas Farrington RB #22 | 28 CAR, 165 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Deondre Johnson WR #11 | 18 REC, 338 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jamill Williams WR #17 | 21 REC, 246 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Luke Gilbert TE #30 | 10 REC, 231 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Darius Cannon WR #3 | 20 REC, 165 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Caleb Nix S #1 | 35 |
| Walker O'Steen LB #40 | 30 | |
| Morven Joseph LB #2 | 26 | |
| Sacks | Tae Floyd DL #15 | 2 |
| Quay Hood DL #16 | 2 | |
| Khurtiss Perry DL #44 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Caleb Nix S #1 | 2 |
| Rob Billings IV S #5 | 1 | |
| Tristan Lyles LB #31 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.