Wk 6 · 2026
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers — Sat, Oct 10
Sat, Oct 10 ·
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
· ESPN FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
12:00pET
PITT -3.5 · total 47.5 DraftKings opened -4.5 · 1 toward UNC
Ratings differential PITT by 8.7
What is at stake
A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Pitt is ranked #25 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
North Carolina form
W 21-17at PITTL 26-37vs NDL 20-28at CLEMW 35-3vs ETSUW 15-10at TCU
2026 season
Pitt form
L 17-21vs UNCW 35-33at VTW 59-0vs BUCKW 27-13vs SYRW 12-7vs UCF
2026 season
North Carolina this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Pitt this season
Straight up5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Against the spread4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | North Carolina | Pitt |
|---|---|---|
| Syracuse ACC | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs W 27-13 preview |
| Miami ACC | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Louisville ACC | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, North Carolina leads 9–4 · North Carolina won the last one
13 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
3.0 points toward North Carolina
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-10 | North Carolina 21 — 17 Pitt | at PITT | North Carolina |
| 2024 | 2024-10-05 | Pitt 34 — 24 North Carolina | at UNC | Pitt |
| 2023 | 2023-09-23 | North Carolina 41 — 24 Pitt | at PITT | North Carolina |
| 2022 | 2022-10-29 | Pitt 24 — 42 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2021 | 2021-11-11 | North Carolina 23 — 30 Pitt | at PITT | Pitt |
| 2019 | 2019-11-14 | North Carolina 27 — 34 Pitt | at PITT | Pitt |
| 2018 | 2018-09-22 | Pitt 35 — 38 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2017 | 2017-11-09 | North Carolina 34 — 31 Pitt | at PITT | North Carolina |
| 2016 | 2016-09-24 | Pitt 36 — 37 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2015 | 2015-10-29 | North Carolina 26 — 19 Pitt | at PITT | North Carolina |
| 2014 | 2014-11-15 | Pitt 35 — 40 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2013 | 2013-11-16 | North Carolina 34 — 27 Pitt | at PITT | North Carolina |
| 2009 | 2009-12-26 | Pitt 19 — 17 North Carolina | neutral | Pitt bowl/CFP |
North Carolina leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Billy Edwards Jr. QB #9 | 61/106, 820 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Miles O'Neill QB #8 | 3/6, 22 YDS | |
| Rushing | Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 43 CAR, 251 YDS |
| Demon June RB #0 | 31 CAR, 128 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Jaylen McGill RB #27 | 17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 20 REC, 273 YDS |
| Jelani Thurman TE #45 | 16 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD | |
| C.J. Sadler WR #14 | 5 REC, 87 YDS | |
| Trech Kekahuna WR #2 | 6 REC, 71 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Derek McDonald LB #15 | 36 |
| Peyton Seelmann LB #10 | 31 | |
| Leroy Jackson DL #91 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Xavier Lewis DL #90 | 6 |
| Jaylen Harvey DL #11 | 2 | |
| Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Greg Smith DB #1 | 2 |
Pitt leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Mason Heintschel QB #6 | 98/148, 1304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT |
| Holden Geriner QB #15 | 19/26, 219 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rushing | Damon Ferguson Jr. RB #26 | 51 CAR, 270 YDS, 3 TD |
| La'Vell Wright RB #29 | 35 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Mason Heintschel QB #6 | 30 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Cataurus Hicks WR #3 | 15 REC, 315 YDS, 3 TD |
| Bryce Yates WR #4 | 15 REC, 240 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Censere Lee WR #10 | 18 REC, 195 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Carson Kent TE #86 | 12 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Cruce Brookins DB #12 | 26 |
| Josh Guerrier DB #14 | 24 | |
| Jeremiah Marcelin LB #32 | 22 | |
| Sacks | Nick James DL #11 | 2 |
| Isaiah Neal DL #2 | 1.5 | |
| Jaeden Moore DL #8 | 1.5 | |
| Interceptions | Raion Strader DB #6 | 1 |
| Braylan Lovelace LB #0 | 1 | |
| Cameron Lindsey LB #24 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.