Wk 5 · 2026
Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
· CW FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
10:30pET
TXST -9.5 · total 57.5 DraftKings opened +4.5 · 5 toward TXST
Ratings differential TXST by 4.5
What is at stake
A Pac-12 game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Texas St form
L 29-31at SDSUW 63-10vs UIWW 49-35vs UNTL 26-31vs UTSAL 7-59at TEX
2026 season
San Diego St form
L 14-66at ORSTW 31-29vs TXSTL 16-41at TOLL 13-26vs JMUL 10-28at UCLA
2026 season
Texas St this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under4-1 · 80% (5 games)
San Diego St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread1-5 · 17% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | Texas St | San Diego St |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado St Pac-12 | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Utah State Pac-12 | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Boise St Pac-12 | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview | at Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Oregon St Pac-12 | at Wk 10 · scheduled preview | at L 14-66 preview |
| Fresno St Pac-12 | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| Washington St Pac-12 | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, San Diego St leads 1–0 · San Diego St won the last one
1 meeting
in 2006–2026 · average margin
2.0 points toward San Diego St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-03 | Texas St 29 — 31 San Diego St | at SDSU | San Diego St |
Texas St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Brad Jackson QB #8 | 92/138, 1226 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT |
| Gavin Parkhurst QB #17 | 8/9, 114 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Torrance Burgess Jr. RB #4 | 84 CAR, 614 YDS, 1 TD |
| Davian Jackson RB #6 | 64 CAR, 315 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Brad Jackson QB #8 | 51 CAR, 186 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Chris Dawn Jr. WR #1 | 24 REC, 304 YDS, 4 TD |
| Beau Sparks WR #11 | 17 REC, 244 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Kylen Evans WR #2 | 11 REC, 199 YDS | |
| Zechariah Sample WR #3 | 7 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Jayden Bradley DB #9 | 37 |
| Ayden Jones LB #15 | 30 | |
| Terrence Cooks II LB #16 | 29 | |
| Sacks | Tymere Jackson DL #56 | 2.5 |
| J.P. Deeter DL #91 | 0.5 | |
| Jo'Laison Landry DL #6 | 0.5 | |
| Interceptions | Ryan Nolan OL #56 | 1 |
| Michael Patterson III DB #19 | 1 | |
| Trez Moore DB #2 | 1 |
San Diego St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Jayden Denegal QB #4 | 71/122, 709 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT |
| Draiden Trudeau QB #13 | 4/6, 53 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Javion Kinnard RB #21 | 56 CAR, 312 YDS, 1 TD |
| Josiah Lucas RB #23 | 34 CAR, 159 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Lucky Sutton RB #7 | 45 CAR, 150 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Receiving | Nathan Acevedo WR #13 | 16 REC, 177 YDS, 2 TD |
| Jacob Bostick WR #17 | 6 REC, 90 YDS | |
| Javion Kinnard RB #21 | 6 REC, 81 YDS | |
| Bert Emanuel Jr. WR #5 | 6 REC, 80 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Sione Hala LB #0 | 53 |
| Jelani McLaughlin S #20 | 37 | |
| Josh Hunter S #29 | 36 | |
| Sacks | Djibril Rahman LB #45 | 3 |
| Alijah Lash LB #41 | 2 | |
| Sione Hala LB #0 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Mike Lindsay CB #27 | 2 |
| Kai Wallin LB #18 | 1 | |
| Isaiah Green S #14 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.