Wk 10 · 2026
Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines — Sat, Nov 7
Sat, Nov 7 ·
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 26 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
Big Ten · 2-4
at
TBDET
MICH -16.5 · total 50.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential MICH by 9.2
Big Ten · 3-2
What is at stake
Paul Bunyan Trophy. A four-foot wooden lumberjack the governor put up in 1953 that Michigan spent decades pretending not to care about and Michigan State has never once pretended. They play for the Paul Bunyan Trophy (Governor of Michigan Trophy). A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Michigan St form
L 37-38vs ILLL 3-31at WISL 13-31vs NEBL 10-27at NDW 35-7vs EMU
2026 season
Michigan form
L 14-20at MINNL 19-20vs IOWAW 52-17vs UTEPW 17-10vs OUW 13-12vs WMU
2026 season
Michigan St this season
Straight up2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Against the spread3-2-1 · 60% (6 games)
Over / under2-4 · 33% (6 games)
Michigan this season
Straight up3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Against the spread2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Over / under1-4 · 20% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 3
| Opponent | Michigan St | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA Big Ten | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Oregon Big Ten | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| Rutgers Big Ten | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | at Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 10–10 · Michigan has won the last 4
20 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
2.9 points toward Michigan
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-10-25 | Michigan 31 — 20 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan |
| 2024 | 2024-10-26 | Michigan St 17 — 24 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2023 | 2023-10-21 | Michigan 49 — 0 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan |
| 2022 | 2022-10-29 | Michigan St 7 — 29 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2021 | 2021-10-30 | Michigan 33 — 37 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2020 | 2020-10-31 | Michigan St 27 — 24 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan St |
| 2019 | 2019-11-16 | Michigan St 10 — 44 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2018 | 2018-10-20 | Michigan 21 — 7 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan |
| 2017 | 2017-10-07 | Michigan St 14 — 10 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan St |
| 2016 | 2016-10-29 | Michigan 32 — 23 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan |
| 2015 | 2015-10-17 | Michigan St 27 — 23 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan St |
| 2014 | 2014-10-25 | Michigan 11 — 35 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2013 | 2013-11-02 | Michigan 6 — 29 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2012 | 2012-10-20 | Michigan St 10 — 12 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
| 2011 | 2011-10-15 | Michigan 14 — 28 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2010 | 2010-10-09 | Michigan St 34 — 17 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan St |
| 2009 | 2009-10-03 | Michigan 20 — 26 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2008 | 2008-10-25 | Michigan St 35 — 21 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan St |
| 2007 | 2007-11-03 | Michigan 28 — 24 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan |
| 2006 | 2006-10-07 | Michigan St 13 — 31 Michigan | at MICH | Michigan |
Michigan St leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT |
| Cam Fancher QB #2 | 8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Cam Edwards RB #0 | 64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD |
| Jaziun Patterson RB #4 | 44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Marvis Parrish RB #21 | 29 CAR, 89 YDS | |
| Receiving | Rodney Bullard Jr. WR #3 | 15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD |
| Jayden Savoury TE #31 | 17 REC, 179 YDS | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 18 REC, 150 YDS | |
| Fredrick Moore WR #6 | 14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Devin Vaught S #2 | 33 |
| Dion Crawford LB #18 | 23 | |
| Brady Pretzlaff LB #45 | 23 | |
| Sacks | Eli Coenen DL #96 | 3 |
| Isaac Smith EDGE #13 | 1 | |
| Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Kenny Soares Jr. EDGE #23 | 1 |
Michigan leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Bryce Underwood QB #19 | 67/113, 881 YDS, 5 TD, 4 INT |
| Tommy Carr QB #14 | 2/2, 23 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Jordan Marshall RB #23 | 55 CAR, 244 YDS, 3 TD |
| Bryce Underwood QB #19 | 57 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Savion Hiter RB #5 | 46 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | JJ Buchanan WR #6 | 24 REC, 446 YDS, 4 TD |
| Andrew Marsh WR #3 | 25 REC, 268 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Savion Hiter RB #5 | 5 REC, 59 YDS | |
| Hogan Hansen TE #80 | 5 REC, 35 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Troy Bowles LB #18 | 40 |
| Jyaire Hill CB #0 | 25 | |
| Nathaniel Staehling LB #44 | 25 | |
| Sacks | John Henry Daley DE #90 | 3 |
| Dom Nichols DE #8 | 2.5 | |
| Nate Marshall DE #94 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Jonah Lea'ea DT #91 | 1 |
| Smith Snowden CB #3 | 1 | |
| Jyaire Hill CB #0 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.