Wk 4 · 2026
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack — Sat, Sep 26
Sat, Sep 26 ·
Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
· FS1 FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
at
10:30pET
AF -5.5 · total 50.5 DraftKings opened +4.5 · 1 toward AF
Ratings differential AF by 0.6
What is at stake
A Mountain West game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Air Force form
W 28-7at NIUW 14-9vs NAVYW 36-33at NEVL 32-38vs NDSUW 34-0vs DUQ
2026 season
Nevada form
W 30-13at UTEPL 33-36vs AFL 20-27at MTSUL 7-20vs MTSTW 49-14vs WKU
2026 season
Air Force this season
Straight up4-1 · 80% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Nevada this season
Straight up2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Against the spread3-2 · 60% (5 games)
Over / under2-3 · 40% (5 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 6
| Opponent | Air Force | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| N Dakota St Mountain West | vs L 32-38 preview | at Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
| N Illinois Mountain West | at W 28-7 preview | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview |
| UNLV Mountain West | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview |
| San José St Mountain West | vs Wk 11 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| UTEP Mountain West | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview | at W 30-13 preview |
| New Mexico Mountain West | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Air Force leads 7–2 · Air Force has won the last 4
9 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
6.3 points toward Air Force
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-09-26 | Air Force 36 — 33 Nevada | at NEV | Air Force |
| 2024 | 2024-11-23 | Air Force 22 — 19 Nevada | at NEV | Air Force |
| 2022 | 2022-09-23 | Nevada 20 — 48 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
| 2021 | 2021-11-19 | Air Force 41 — 39 Nevada | at NEV | Air Force |
| 2018 | 2018-09-29 | Nevada 28 — 25 Air Force | at AF | Nevada |
| 2017 | 2017-10-20 | Air Force 45 — 42 Nevada | at NEV | Air Force |
| 2014 | 2014-11-15 | Nevada 38 — 45 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
| 2013 | 2013-09-28 | Air Force 42 — 45 Nevada | at NEV | Nevada |
| 2012 | 2012-10-26 | Nevada 31 — 48 Air Force | at AF | Air Force |
Air Force leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Liam Szarka QB #9 | 19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT |
| Evan Medders QB #5 | 3/7, 47 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Liam Szarka QB #9 | 92 CAR, 391 YDS, 7 TD |
| Rocco Conti RB #44 | 35 CAR, 187 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Kemper Hodges QB #4 | 23 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Simon Kibbee TE #80 | 6 REC, 103 YDS |
| Adam Hrynciw WR #10 | 4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Matt Long WR #3 | 4 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jonah Dawson WR #8 | 3 REC, 39 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Blake Fletcher LB #6 | 44 |
| Dallas Daley LB #8 | 28 | |
| Max Mustell DB #36 | 15 | |
| Sacks | Max Mustell DB #36 | 2 |
| Jaylin Reese LB #45 | 1.5 | |
| Blake Fletcher LB #6 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Max Mustell DB #36 | 1 |
| Blake Fletcher LB #6 | 1 | |
| Korey Johnson DB #2 | 1 |
Nevada leaders 2026 regular season
| Passing | Carter Jones QB #6 | 42/70, 572 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT |
| AJ Bianco QB #10 | 12/21, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Dominic Kelley RB #0 | 54 CAR, 341 YDS, 3 TD |
| Herschel Turner RB #1 | 39 CAR, 234 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Carter Jones QB #6 | 25 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Receiving | Gary Givens III WR #7 | 7 REC, 164 YDS |
| Damien Morgan WR #11 | 19 REC, 126 YDS | |
| Donnie Cheers WR #5 | 6 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Herschel Turner RB #1 | 6 REC, 76 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | EJ Smith LB #2 | 55 |
| Dylan LaBarbera EDGE #32 | 39 | |
| Jeremy Naborne-Owens LB #1 | 29 | |
| Sacks | Myles Williams EDGE #92 | 1.5 |
| EJ Smith LB #2 | 1.5 | |
| Logologo Va'a DL #10 | 1 | |
| Interceptions | Bryson Snelling DB #12 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.