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Wk 5 · 2026

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers — Sat, Oct 3

Sat, Oct 3 · Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO · ABC FINAL

Weather

No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
#8 Florida Gators
SEC · 4-2
17
at
3:50pET
FLA -5.5 · total 57.5 DraftKings opened +2.5 · 3 toward FLA
Ratings differential MIZ by 4.6
#25 Missouri Tigers
SEC · 5-1
45

What is at stake

A SEC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. Florida is ranked #16 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04). Missouri is ranked #14 (AP Top 25 · 2026-10-04).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Florida: +13.0#22
Efficiency margin
Missouri: +15.2#12
Florida: 40.3
Offense (pts/100)
Missouri: 37.0
Florida: 18.4
Defense (pts/100)
Missouri: 12.8
Florida: 69.8
Pace (plays/g)
Missouri: 67.8
Florida: 6.79
Yards / play
Missouri: 6.34
Florida: 5.64
Yards / play allowed
Missouri: 4.51
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Florida: 41.7
Points / game
Missouri: 35.8
Florida: 29.0
Points allowed
Missouri: 17.7
Florida: 474
Yards / game
Missouri: 430
Florida: 393
Yards allowed
Missouri: 291
Florida: 269
Pass yds allowed
Missouri: 214
Florida: 124
Rush yds allowed
Missouri: 77
Florida: 1.17
Turnovers / game
Missouri: 0.50
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Florida form

L 19-38vs SCL 17-45at MIZW 52-28vs MISSW 44-39at AUBW 52-3vs CAM
2026 season

Missouri form

W 27-6vs TA&MW 45-17vs FLAL 24-31at MSSTW 27-17vs TROYW 38-21at KU
2026 season

Florida this season

Straight up4-2 · 67% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under4-2 · 67% (6 games)

Missouri this season

Straight up5-1 · 83% (6 games)
Against the spread3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Over / under3-3 · 50% (6 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 5

OpponentFloridaMissouri
Ole Miss
SEC
vs W 52-28 previewat Wk 7 · scheduled preview
Texas
SEC
at Wk 7 · scheduled previewvs Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Georgia
SEC
N Wk 9 · scheduled previewat Wk 11 · scheduled preview
Oklahoma
SEC
vs Wk 10 · scheduled previewvs Wk 13 · scheduled preview
Kentucky
SEC
at Wk 11 · scheduled previewvs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Missouri leads 7–6 · Missouri has won the last 2
13 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 2.3 points toward Missouri
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20262026-10-03Florida 17 — 45 Missouriat MIZMissouri
20232023-11-18Florida 31 — 33 Missouriat MIZMissouri
20222022-10-08Missouri 17 — 24 Floridaat FLAFlorida
20212021-11-20Florida 23 — 24 Missouriat MIZMissouri
20202020-10-31Missouri 17 — 41 Floridaat FLAFlorida
20192019-11-16Florida 23 — 6 Missouriat MIZFlorida
20182018-11-03Missouri 38 — 17 Floridaat FLAMissouri
20172017-11-04Florida 16 — 45 Missouriat MIZMissouri
20162016-10-15Missouri 14 — 40 Floridaat FLAFlorida
20152015-10-10Florida 21 — 3 Missouriat MIZFlorida
20142014-10-18Missouri 42 — 13 Floridaat FLAMissouri
20132013-10-19Florida 17 — 36 Missouriat MIZMissouri
20122012-11-03Missouri 7 — 14 Floridaat FLAFlorida

Florida leaders 2026 regular season

PassingAaron Philo QB #1284/121, 1114 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT
Tramell Jones Jr. QB #917/21, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushingJadan Baugh RB #1395 CAR, 613 YDS, 11 TD
Duke Clark RB #2033 CAR, 260 YDS, 3 TD
Aaron Philo QB #1231 CAR, 72 YDS, 3 TD
ReceivingDallas Wilson WR #618 REC, 302 YDS, 3 TD
Vernell Brown III WR #117 REC, 271 YDS, 2 TD
TJ Abrams WR #48 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD
Bailey Stockton WR #315 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
Defense
TacklesMyles Graham LB #534
Aaron Chiles LB #822
Jayden Woods LB #021
SacksJayden Woods LB #04
Emmanuel Oyebadejo DL #993.5
Kamran James DL #242
InterceptionsDJ Coleman S #332
Cormani McClain CB #251
Dijon Johnson CB #271
full roster and per-player history

Missouri leaders 2026 regular season

PassingAustin Simmons QB #1393/137, 1287 YDS, 13 TD
Matt Zollers QB #58/13, 87 YDS
RushingJamal Roberts RB #20113 CAR, 606 YDS, 6 TD
Xai'Shaun Edwards RB #2433 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Preston Hatfield RB #284 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingCayden Lee WR #1935 REC, 522 YDS, 4 TD
Donovan Olugbode WR #126 REC, 407 YDS, 6 TD
Shaun Terry II WR #49 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Naeshaun Montgomery WR #07 REC, 82 YDS
Defense
TacklesNicholas Rodriguez LB #550
Santana Banner S #1544
Robert Woodyard Jr. LB #036
SacksDaeden Hopkins EDGE #106
Donta Simpson DT #83
Jason Dowell DT #922
InterceptionsRobert Woodyard Jr. LB #01
Jahlil Florence CB #211
Trajen Greco S #41
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.